Evaluating Cramer’s Picks Versus November Short Interest Data

Stock Tickers: HAL, MO, NYX, GS, MA, SHLD, DE, BA, TWX, CMCSA, CSCO, AAPL, GOOG, RIMM, ORCL, PNRA, TRMP, COST

Now that the NASDAQ has its short interest out for November and we can see the short interest data for both NASDAQ and for NYSE shares, it seemed liked a good idea to run a comparison on Cramer’s overall Steady-Eddie picks he has been positive on for some time.  Many of you love to hate him and many of you love him, but the "Cramer Picks" universe did very well while the market was doing well.

Some of these may not have the exact dates lined up on his recommendations, and it is likely that many out there can create data that either refutes or supports this if they tweak the dates or do not take today’s equivalent dollars into consideration.  After all, you can manipulate dates or aspects to make facts support your thesis on just about anything.  The stocks selected here in the attachment are not selected in any particular order and if any names were left off it was either an oversight or because the picks weren’t discussed back in October or have already been omitted by November.

To avoid any data manipulation I kept a few constants:  The October closing date of OCT 13 is the short interest date on the exchanges, and that closing date is a split & dividend adjusted price in today’s dollars.  The November closing date of NOV 15 is the short interest date on the exchanges, and that closing date is a split & dividend adjusted price in today’s dollars.  The same applies to today’s prices, which are based on a snapshot of the market taken at 1:11PM EST today.

The markets did rise from Oct. 13 to Nov. 15, and the markets are all still higher as of this approximate time snapshot.  I didn’t show overall short interest for the exchanges.

From the Oct. short interest period to the Nov. period, only 2 of these 18 steady picks of Cramer’s are actually down.  If you take into consideration the price changes as of today, there are still only 4 of Cramer’s 18 picks down.  Obviously there are many more picks he has made, and there are probably a couple hundred if you take his Radio Show, the "Stop Trading" segment, and the "Lightning Round" all into consideration.  But these are most of the names he has been steadily bullish on for some time now.

Check out the table below to see the data (jpg file):

Download cramer_short_int_chart_nov_06.jpg

Jon C. Ogg
November 28, 2006

If for some reason you cannot read the chart or if it was improperly uploades I will be happy to send you an email snapshot UPON REQUEST of it in a JPG file or in Acrobat.  Both have been saved.