Deepwater Commission: “Complex Systems Almost Always Fail In Complex Ways”

The seven members of The National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling might as well have stayed at home instead of venturing out to examine why the well exploded and sent millions of gallons of oil into the Gulf. They made a number of conclusions in their final report. All of these conclusions were among those which nearly any oil executive, regulator of the industry, or scientist who studies drilling and its effects on the environment already know.

The central statement made by the Commission is that “Complex Systems Almost Always Fail In Complex Ways” FAA investigators who examine airplane crashes and members of Congress who reviewed the credit crisis could have told them about complex systems. Many moving “parts” have many points which can and do break.

The Commission reported several other findings which are obvious. “The explosive loss of the Macondo well could have been prevented.”  That’s old news.

“Deepwater energy exploration and production, particularly at the frontiers of experience, involve risks for which neither industry nor government has been adequately prepared, but for which they can and must be prepared in the future.” The federal government’s regulation and inspection services for almost every industry are stretched to the breaking point. Austerity measures about to be taken by Congress and the Administration will only make that problem worse.

“Because regulatory oversight alone will not be enough to ensure adequate safety, the oil and gas industry will need to take its own, unilateral steps to increase dramatically safety throughout the industry, including self-policing mechanisms that supplement governmental enforcement.” BP’s cost to clean-up the aftermath of the explosion and the damage done to its balance sheet and reputation assures the industry has already begun to take those measures.

“Scientific understanding of environmental conditions in sensitive environments in deep Gulf waters, along the region’s coastal habitats, and in areas proposed for more drilling, such as the Arctic, is inadequate.  The same is true of the human and natural impacts of oil spills.” The inability of the world’s best academics who studied the movement of the slick caused by the leak to chart its course and the inability of drilling experts to cap the well quickly prove those conclusions.  Moreover, the limits of the ability of these most ingenious experts is a sign that the human capacity to understand the effects of large disasters underscore the limits of science.

The Commission’s failure to pass anything meaningful from its analysis to the government, the oil industry, and probably most important the public hurts the reputation of blue chip committees. They are appointed with a great deal of PR and their goals are set very high. When they do not clear that bar, they increase the skepticism of what facts “experts” can gather and analyze effectively.

Douglas A. McIntyre