Why the American Idol Brand Might Not Survive Beyond 2014

24/7 Wall St. recently covered Ten Brands That Would Disappear in 2014. “American Idol” was not among those brands, but perhaps it should have been. Several things are happening against its future. While a turnaround is possible, the current path of destruction leads to the possible death of this brand as you know it.

The first issue is that Season 12 ratings showed that viewership was down more than 40% from the prior season finale, for the worst ratings of its finale ever. The Hollywood Reporter said that “Idol” became your grandparents show, as the median age was over 51 years old. The show lost some 7 million viewers, and total viewers were only 14.3 million. This was apparently the first time an “Idol” season finale did not have 20 million or more viewers since the show launched back in 2002. That viewership was down 10 million in just two years, which shows an accelerated abandonment by viewers. “American Idol” used to be the number one ranked show for years.

Apparently no one wants to buy the “American Idol Live” concert tickets either. On Tuesday afternoon an email was sent to Living Social subscribers in Houston for the “American Idol Live” concert. Rather than paying $78 for a ticket, fans can get in for 56% lower at $34 per ticket. Deep discounting like this, along with a daily deals effort, is indicative that the price of the tickets may only be part of the problem.

The top names have departed American Idol as judges too. Randy Jackson was the last of original judges to leave, and that just happened in May. Mariah Carey and Nicki Minaj also announced their departure as judges from “American Idol” in May as well. Everyone knows that no star wants to be associated with a sinking ship, so what does this tell you?

Another issue is that the website traffic has declined handily as well. Alexa measured its top site traffic rank, its audience reach, and its pageviews all as being far lower in 2013 versus 2012. That would of course be expected if television ratings were down the tube, but the Alexa.com chart here shows exactly how much lower the ratings were. The pageviews on average peaked in 2013 at the same levels that appear to be the floor in the prior year and that is something that advertisers will flee from when all other metrics are in decline as well. The reach appears to be the worst chart:

The death of “American Idol” could be exacerbated by a flight of advertisers. When this show was created, it was certainly not for 51 year old in mind. An accelerated decline that we saw from 2013 to 2012 would give the “Idol” brand a life of two or three years, if all things are static, but the reality is that networks will only spend so much for a show. If everything is in decline, the metrics might not be enough to even keep this brand alive in 2014.

If Season 12 was so poor for free on TV, then how great can demand be for a live concert featuring Season 12 finalists really be? The daily deal might as well have said, “You didn’t want to watch us for free in the comfort of your own home, so maybe you want to pay to watch the people you did not want to see live!” The daily deal for Houston tickets from Living Social said:

You’ve seen the stars on your TV set every week, now experience the singing sensations of American Idol in concert with this offer: For $34, you’ll score one ticket to see American Idol Live! at Reliant Arena on Sunday, July 28. This one-night-only concert brings the biggest stars from the show that started it all to the same stage for an unforgettable night of music.

Season 12 Idol finalists Amber Holcomb, Angie Miller, Burnell Taylor, Candice Glover, Curtis Finch Jr, Devin Velez, Janelle Arthur, Kree Harrison, Lazaro Arbos, and Paul Jolley will be on hand to charm the audience with their powerful performances — plus, Season 11 finalist Aubrey Cleland also joins the tour after being voted on by Idol fans.

Now for the other side of the coin, as this is a business that would have a serious value if measured at the peak over the past decade. Anything can be turned around if all things are equal and if all things can be improved. Maybe there is a one-year hiatus. Maybe there is a whole new team top to bottom with new fresh ideas. Maybe. If not, the “American Idol” brand might not survive after another poor year.

“American Idol” may have just been entertainment for millions of Americans. It has been big business for Fox, advertisers, musicians and anyone else associated with the brand. Now the odds are stacked against it. We will have to see if American Idol can get back on its feet.