Earnings Analysis: Don’t Write Off AOL

Be aware that AOL does remain a turnaround in progress. Many outsiders also still view it skeptically. After all, the company is still looking for operational efficiencies and still reviewing aspects of the business that can be streamlined. That was the case in exiting the Patch effort in January.

AOL’s fourth-quarter revenues grew to $679.0 million from $599.5 million a year earlier, growth of 13%. The net income figure of $36 million was up only 1% from a year earlier, but the $0.43 earnings per share was growth of 5%. Thomson Reuters had estimates of $0.60 in earnings per share on $655.8 million in revenue. Please note: The reason the earnings per share looks so much lower than estimates is because of restructuring costs and a difference in Thomson Reuters calculation differentials in GAAP and non-GAAP numbers. AOL sent us a note that the adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.64 per share, versus a $0.60 estimate from Thomson Reuters (and $0.61 estimate from Bloomberg and from Factset). Even if the earnings comparisons were harder to see, AOL did still beat revenue expectations handily.

AOL had $207.3 million of cash and equivalents as of the end of 2013. It repurchased 900,000 shares for $32.6 million, at an average price of $34.60 during the quarter. Cash provided by operating activities rose 17% to $90 million, while free cash flow rose 30% to $60.4 million.

Here are some basic statistics mentioned in the release:

• 13% revenue growth
• 19% adjusted OIBDA growth
• 23% Global Advertising revenue growth, fueled by pricing growth
• The sixth consecutive quarter of unique visitor growth
• AOL Networks grew revenue 50% — from video, mobile and programmatic
• AOL Brand Group grew revenue 4% and tripled adjusted OIBDA
• Record low churn of 1.3% mitigated membership group revenue decline
• Margins expand by more than 100 basis points

Chairman and CEO Tim Armstrong said:

2013 was AOL’s most successful year in the last decade, and we accomplished our goal of industry level growth at scale for AOL. AOL’s exceptionally talented team continues to execute against our strategy and our results show meaningful progress in the most important areas of media and technology. AOL plans to invest in our market leading strategies in 2014, while we continue to grow the company.

AOL shares closed down almost 4% at $47.57 on Wednesday, but shares were indicated back up between $49.50 and $50 in early trading on Thursday. This stock has traded in a 52-week range of $30.57 to $53.28.