Why Time Warner Can’t Return to a 52-Week High

By Paul Ausick Updated Apr 28, 10:26AM EDT · Published Aug 6, 2:15PM EDT

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Investors in Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. (NASDAQ: FOXA) indirectly let the company’s chairman and CEO Rupert Murdoch know exactly how they felt about the proposed acquisition of Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX). The stock price fell more than 10% since Fox announced its offer. The shares are up nearly 5% Wednesday following the announced withdrawal of the offer.

The bad news, for Time Warner, is that CEO Jeff Bewkes’s plan, which he claimed would provide more returns for Time Warner shareholders, may not live up to its advance billing. In the company’s second-quarter results announced Wednesday morning, revenue rose 3% year-over-year to $6.8 billion and profit was up 17%. Could Bewkes have been right?

Investors don’t think so. Time Warner’s shares have dropped more than 12%, wiping out the lion’s share of their gain since Fox made its offer public on July 16. An announced $5 billion addition to Time Warner’s share buyback program seems to be the other big arrow fired by Bewkes today.

In the company’s conference call, Bewkes said the company “doesn’t lack anything we need.” The company said it will hold its investors day later this fall to provide details of its long-term strategy.

Bewkes might be right. But shareholders were looking for a big near-term payday, and that is now pretty much out the window. Acquirers that could swallow the $100 billion price tag that Time Warner seems to want are not exactly thick on the ground.

So, investors will want to know how long before Time Warner’s long-term strategy will make up the difference. Here’s betting that it will be a long long-term strategy and that investors will not be amused by what they hear. And about the only way Time Warner can shorten the time frame is to sell off some assets. But if the company truly has everything it needs, then it would be foolish to sell something, right?

Time Warner shares traded down 12.6% in the mid-afternoon on Wednesday, at $74.43 in a 52-week range of $57.59 to $88.13. Shares closed at $71.01 the day before Fox announced its offer for the company. The 52-week high was posted on July 21.

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About the Author Paul Ausick →

Paul Ausick has been writing for a673b.bigscoots-temp.com for more than a decade. He has written extensively on investing in the energy, defense, and technology sectors. In a previous life, he wrote technical documentation and managed a marketing communications group in Silicon Valley.

He has a bachelor's degree in English from the University of Chicago and now lives in Montana, where he fishes for trout in the summer and stays inside during the winter.