More Analysts See Facebook Rising to $100 or Higher

Oppenheimer maintained an Outperform rating for Facebook and raised its price target to $100 from $88. Consistent with recent quarters, Facebook is expected to beat its expense guidance, resulting in higher margins according to Oppenheimer. Checks would suggest that fourth-quarter pricing increased 14% quarter over quarter and 21% year over year, with same-client spending up 32% quarter over quarter and 33% year over year. This excludes video or Instagram.

Monetization is trending above Oppenheimer’s estimates, and channel checks suggest that social ad budgets continue to increase. Also a lower newsfeed ad load is driving higher pricing. In addition, checks suggest video ad units are generating advertiser interest.

Increasing Instagram valuation reflects a higher monthly active user (MAU) count for 2015 in the area of 465 million, compared to the previously estimated 315 million in 2014. As a result, Oppenheimer values Instagram at $7.99 per share, based on $50 per MAU versus Twitter’s $73 per MAU.

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Credit Suisse slightly lowered its earnings estimates for Facebook, while raising its price target to $102 from $88. Annual earnings per share estimates:

• 2014: lowered to $1.59 from $1.60
• 2015: lowered to $1.52 from $1.54
• 2016: lowered to $2.75 from $2.85

Although Credit Suisse maintains its stance that overall operational expenditures guidance appears conservative, its conclusion from the analysis is that Facebook’s Audience Network explains a modest part of the 50% to 70% increase in those expenditures.

The brokerage firm maintains an Outperform rating, based on a belief that Facebook can drive revenue growth without a material lift in ad loads, as well as optionality and upward bias to estimates do not contemplate contributions from multiple other products. Credit Suisse also considers Street models to be overly conservative and that they underestimate the long-term monetization potential of upcoming new products.

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Credit Suisse’s price target implies an upside of 33.3%, while Oppenheimer’s price target implies 30.7%. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $87.80, which indicates upside of 14.3% compared to current prices. The highest analyst price target is $105, implying upside of 36.6%.

Shares of Facebook were down less than 1% at $76.27 in late morning trading on Wednesday, against a 52-week trading range of $51.85 to $82.17.