What Alcoa Earnings May Indicate About Boeing and Airbus

When Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reported earnings on Monday, the aluminum miner and producer lowered guidance based in part on decreased demand for aluminum from aircraft makers. The company did not specify which maker or makers may be responsible, but there aren’t many suspects.

Aerospace analysts, of course, rose to the occasion, drawing some reasonable conclusions regarding where demand is slowing. Leeham News on Wednesday noted that Wells Fargo’s analyst lays the blame on Airbus, while Buckingham Research points the finger at Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA).

Leeham cites Wells Fargo analyst Sam Pearlstein:

Alcoa reduced 2016 aerospace global sales growth guidance to 6-8% from 8-9% with large commercial aircraft growth now expected to be about 9% (vs. 15% previous forecast) largely due to lower orders for legacy models and a ”more careful” ramp-up of new models (which we presume means A320NEO and A350.

Alcoa expects lower aerospace demand in Q2 as a result of a slower ramp-up for next generation platforms due to the simultaneous launches of new technologies and inventory overhang at OEMs.

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That inventory overhang is the result of slow deliveries of business class seats from Zodiac, a supplier to both Boeing and Airbus. Another issue for Airbus is continuing glitches with the new geared turbofan engine from United Technologies Corp.’s (NYSE: UTX) Pratt & Whitney division. Some airlines have refused to take delivery of the A320neo until the problems are sorted out. Airbus claims that all will be well by June.

Because Boeing’s transition from its current version of the 737 to the 737 MAX is just beginning, the company probably had already limited its aluminum purchases. The 777 is sold out for this year and sales have slowed going forward, but that shouldn’t affect immediate demand for aluminum.

Buckingham Research sees some issues at Boeing as putting a crimp in Alcoa’s sales. Again, from Leeham News:

We see no issues impacting planned production rate increases for the B737 to 47/mo in 2017 and the B787 ramp to 12/mo in 2016. However, Alcoa’s Aerospace demand may have been impacted by planned reductions to B747 and B777 production rates. While we don’t see an issue affecting the planned B767 production rate increase to 2.5/mo in 2017, we think it’s possible Alcoa’s actions could be driven, in part, by KC-46 program delays (which is based on the 767 airframe). It’s been known for some time that development issues are causing program delays.

Boeing has begun gearing up for production of the KC-46A tanker, and the company is contractually committed to producing 18 airplanes for the U.S. Air Force by August of 2017.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch noted several downside risks for Alcoa, including “substitution risk, i.e. steel in autos and composites in airframes.” The firm has a price target of $10.50 on Alcoa stock, right around the consensus price target. Credit Suisse, which initiated coverage on Alcoa in early March, maintained its $13 price target and said it is “bullish” on the stock.

Boeing is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings on April 27. Analysts are looking for earnings per share of $1.84 on revenues of $21.7 billion. Both estimates are below first-quarter 2015 totals.

Boeing stock traded up about 0.7% Wednesday morning, at $130.34 in a 52-week range of $102.10 to $154.37.