Can NATO Outmatch Russia’s Military Power?

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many nations have sought to remain neutral, hoping to avoid a wider conflict. However, due to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) defense principle (Article 5), this neutrality is rather fragile. With nine NATO members sharing a border with Russia, Ukraine, or both, any further territorial expansion by Russia could potentially trigger a full-scale war between Russia and NATO.

Using data from Global Firepower’s 2024 report on international military capabilities, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed how NATO’s military strength compares to Russia’s. In the event of a conflict between Russia and NATO, each NATO member would contribute at least 25% of its military assets, including troops, reserves, and weaponry. Most likely, only 75% of Russian military assets would be available and operational. For context, we also included Global Firepower’s estimates of American military power and assets.

While NATO holds a clear advantage in many categories of military assets, Russia also has formidable strength in specific areas, notably attack aircraft, tanks, and rocket artillery. However, in a total war scenario, many allies would likely put far a larger share of weapons, money, and manpower towards the effort than is assumed in Global Firepower’s analysis. In fact, the defense budget of the U.S. alone is more than 10 times that of Russia. Of the 27 categories of key military assets on this list, the U.S. has an advantage over Russia in all but seven — and in many of those areas, additional contributions from other NATO allies would go a long way toward closing the gap. (These are the U.S. military’s deadliest weapons.)

Why It Matters

The ongoing war in Ukraine is the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II. While NATO has been supplying aid in the form of weapons and money to the Ukrainian effort, no NATO ally has engaged directly in combat — at least so far. Should the war spill across the border of a NATO country, all NATO allies will be obligated under the principle of collective defense to take up arms against Russia.

Oil Production

• Russia’s projected capacity: 10.8 million barrels-per-day
• NATO’s projected capacity: 6.8 million barrels-per-day
• United States’ projected capacity: 18.0 million barrels-per-day

Combined Budget

• Russia’s projected capacity: $82.6 billion
• NATO’s projected capacity: $235.5 billion
• United States’ projected capacity: $831.8 billion

Labor Force

• Russia’s projected capacity: 52,500,000 personnel
• NATO’s projected capacity: 103,333,500 personnel
• United States’ projected capacity: 164,797,000 personnel

Mine Warfare Vessels

M37 - HMS Chidingford (CC BY-SA 4.0 DEED) by Neillsmith

• Russia’s projected capacity: 37 hulls
• NATO’s projected capacity: 45 hulls
• United States’ projected capacity: 8 hulls

Submarines

• Russia’s projected capacity: 53 hulls
• NATO’s projected capacity: 37 hulls
• United States’ projected capacity: 64 hulls

Corvettes

USS Kearsarge (LHD 3) is under... (CC BY 2.0) by Official U.S. Navy Page

• Russia’s projected capacity: 65 hulls
• NATO’s projected capacity: 16 hulls
• United States’ projected capacity: 23 hulls

Frigates

• Russia’s projected capacity: 8 hulls
• NATO’s projected capacity: 34 hulls
• United States’ projected capacity: None

Naval Destroyers

• Russia’s projected capacity: 11 hulls
• NATO’s projected capacity: 28 hulls
• United States’ projected capacity: 75 hulls

Helicopter Carriers

An MH-60S Sea Hawk helicopter... (CC BY 2.0) by Official U.S. Navy Page

• Russia’s projected capacity: None
• NATO’s projected capacity: 3 hulls
• United States’ projected capacity: 9 hulls

Aircraft Carriers

• Russia’s projected capacity: 1 hull
• NATO’s projected capacity: 4 hulls
• United States’ projected capacity: 11 hulls

Total Naval Assets

• Russia’s projected capacity: 449 hulls
• NATO’s projected capacity: 687 hulls
• United States’ projected capacity: 472 hulls

Rocket Artillery

Soviet 2K11 Krug long-range su... (CC BY-SA 2.0) by Andrey Korchagin

• Russia’s projected capacity: 2,915 pieces
• NATO’s projected capacity: 429 pieces
• United States’ projected capacity: 694 pieces

Towed Artillery

• Russia’s projected capacity: 3,252 pieces
• NATO’s projected capacity: 1,765 pieces
• United States’ projected capacity: 1,267 pieces

Self-Propelled Guns

Museo de Unidades Acorazadas d... (CC BY-SA 2.0) by Contando Estrelas

• Russia’s projected capacity: 4,931 vehicles
• NATO’s projected capacity: 1,158 vehicles
• United States’ projected capacity: 1,595 vehicles

Armored Fighting Vehicles

SU-101 Prototype Assault Gun ?... (CC BY-SA 2.0) by Alan Wilson

• Russia’s projected capacity: 113,731 units
• NATO’s projected capacity: 251,909 units
• United States’ projected capacity: 360,069 units

Tanks

• Russia’s projected capacity: 9,425 vehicles
• NATO’s projected capacity: 3,184 vehicles
• United States’ projected capacity: 4,657 vehicles

Attack Helicopters

Ka-52 Helicopter at MAKS-2009... (CC BY 2.0) by Sergey Vladimirov

• Russia’s projected capacity: 403 units
• NATO’s projected capacity: 360 units
• United States’ projected capacity: 1,000 units

Helicopters

• Russia’s projected capacity: 1,148 units
• NATO’s projected capacity: 2,172 units
• United States’ projected capacity: 5,737 units

Aerial Refueling Craft

• Russia’s projected capacity: 14 units
• NATO’s projected capacity: 155 units
• United States’ projected capacity: 606 units

Special-Mission Aircraft

• Russia’s projected capacity: 110 units
• NATO’s projected capacity: 244 units
• United States’ projected capacity: 695 units

Fixed-Wing Transporters

Wyoming National Guard (CC BY 2.0) by The National Guard

• Russia’s projected capacity: 333 units
• NATO’s projected capacity: 381 units
• United States’ projected capacity: 957 units

Dedicated Attack Aircraft

EGVA - Eurofighter Typhoon EF2... (CC BY 2.0) by Steve Lynes

• Russia’s projected capacity: 558 units
• NATO’s projected capacity: 277 units
• United States’ projected capacity: 896 units

Fighter and Interceptor Aircraft

Mikoyan MiG-31 (CC BY 2.0) by Sergey Vladimirov

• Russia’s projected capacity: 580 units
• NATO’s projected capacity: 881 units
• United States’ projected capacity: 1,854 units

Total Airpower

• Russia’s projected capacity: 3,137 aircraft
• NATO’s projected capacity: 5,253 aircraft
• United States’ projected capacity: 13,209 aircraft

Reserve Manpower

• Russia’s projected capacity: 187,500 personnel
• NATO’s projected capacity: 649,150 personnel
• United States’ projected capacity: 799,500 personnel

Frontline Manpower

• Russia’s projected capacity: 623,175 personnel
• NATO’s projected capacity: 851,350 personnel
• United States’ projected capacity: 1,328,000 personnel

Combined Manpower

• Russia’s projected capacity: 810,000 personnel
• NATO’s projected capacity: 1,506,750 personnel
• United States’ projected capacity: 2,127,500 personnel