Should I Claim Social Security at 70 or Start at FRA Based on Predictions for 2034?

One of the biggest decisions anyone moving into retirement has to make is when to start claiming Social Security. What seems like an easy decision can actually be far more complicated, especially if you are someone who doesn’t have significant savings lying around.

This is exactly the scenario one Redditor is trying to review carefully with a post in r/SocialSecurity. Their initial hope was to wait until 70, when they would receive the maximum benefit, but now they are concerned about holding off, given Social Security rumors.

Waiting Until 2034 Is Risky

As it stands today, in September 2025, the Redditor was planning to hold off until they are 70, which would have them start drawing Social Security in 2030. However, they realize that with estimates indicating that in 2034, Social Security benefits could start dropping below 100% payouts, they are concerned that those payouts could be equal to what they would receive if they start pulling money at 67, also known as Full Retirement Age.

My immediate reaction to this individual and what I would tell them if they were my relative is that you can’t make any decisions based on estimates or scenarios that haven’t actually taken place yet. Yes, it is believed that without any further action from Congress, in 2034, the Social Security program will be unable to pay 100% of promised benefits.

Again, according to rumors, if this does take place, the estimate is that Social Security will only be able to pay around 80% of promised benefits based on current tax revenues. If Congress does not act, the current Social Security trust funds will be depleted, leaving only revenue from taxes from workers and employers, which could lead to a 20% cut in revenue.

What Is the Difference Between 67 and 70 Dollar Wise?

According to the Social Security Administration’s Quick Calculator, if this Redditor earns the maximum amount of income that Social Security pulls, their payment in 2030, at 70 years old, would be $4,774. Now, it’s important to note that Social Security has inflation, cost-of-living increases, etc., so this number is subject to change.

However, if this Redditor were to retire at Full Retirement Age, or at 67, their Social Security estimated monthly benefits would only be $3,708. In other words, I totally understand why this individual is trying to hold out until they are 70, as it’s almost $1,000 more monthly or $12,000 annually to hold out and wait until the benefits are the maximum dollar amount possible.

Now, let’s say that there is a scenario in which 2034 comes along and the Redditor has to worry about decreased payments. If they waited until 2030 to pull the maximum amount and suddenly had a 20% decrease in payments, they would lose $954, leaving them with a payment of $3,820. On the other hand, I would suggest to this Redditor that the alternative is to pull at FRA, which would result in losing the 20% off the $3,708, leaving them with just under $3,000 in payments.

The math is pretty clear here, in that my easy recommendation to this individual and anyone else worried about a similar scenario is to hold out, regardless, as 20% off the max payout is still the best possible scenario for earning the most from Social Security drawing benefits.

Have Other Sources of Income

If I were to give this individual some other advice, as a friend, it’s that focusing solely on Social Security for retirement is a bad thing to do. Although there is hope that Congress will act, possibly at the last minute, it doesn’t diminish the need for alternative income sources in the meantime.

Whether it’s a 401(k) that has been building up with money from an employer, investing in a brokerage, or just putting money into a SPAXX account, this is a great moment in time to talk with a financial advisor and for the Redditor (and others) to make sure their retirement plans are on track. Given the likelihood that Social Security money could be in flux in a decade, having a diverse investment portfolio is going to be key to sustaining whatever lifestyle the Redditor hopes to have in retirement.

I can’t emphasize enough the importance of talking to a fiduciary financial advisor who can game out different income scenarios based on the Social Security uncertainty, so this Redditor has a clear view of where they are, where they might be, and what retirement is going to look like.