These Are the Democratic Strongholds of Illinois’ Counties

By Sam Stebbins Updated Oct 31, 5:15PM EDT · Published Oct 31, 12:10PM EDT

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These Are the Democratic Strongholds of Illinois’ Counties — © JaySi / iStock via Getty Images

November 2024 will be one of the closest presidential elections the United States has seen for many years. Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are neck and neck in the polls thus far, with Harris currently leading with support from 48% of voters compared to Trump’s 47%. With numbers this close, it’s hard to say who the victor will be just yet. (Here is a look at which Americans are most likely to vote for Kamala Harris.)

As has been the case in other recent presidential elections, the outcome of the 2024 race will likely come down to a handful of closely contested swing states. In this election cycle, the most competitive states where both campaigns are focusing their resources are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (This is how Trump and Harris are polling in every key swing state.)

In stark contrast to these battleground states, most other states are considered a virtual lock for either Trump or Harris. Based on current polling results, political affiliation of the electorate, and historical voting patterns, Illinois is one of these states. According to official records from the Federal Election Commission, the last time Illinois went to a Republican candidate was in 1988, when the GOP’s George H.W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis, a Democrat.

Illinois’ status as a Democratic stronghold is driven by voters in certain parts of the state. There are 15 counties in Illinois where, over the last four presidential elections, an average of at least 50% of voters have cast a ballot for the Democratic candidate. If historical patterns hold up this election year, these same counties will help deliver Illinois and its 19 electoral votes to Harris in November 2024. All historical, county-level, voting statistics are from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab’s County Presidential Election Returns 2000-2020 database, as compiled in the Harvard Dataverse, V13.

Why It Matters

Because of the electoral college system, the outcome of presidential elections often comes down to voters in just a handful of closely contested states. In contrast to these battleground states, most of the country has reliably voted either Democratic or Republican in recent presidential elections. These states include Illinois, which, barring any unforeseen shake-ups in the race, is all but guaranteed to go to Harris in 2024. Outcomes in states like Illinois are driven, in part, by party strongholds at the county level.

These are the most Democratic counties in Illinois.

15. Alexander County

Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 50.6% Democratic; 47.8% Republican
Popular vote split in 2020 election: 42.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 56.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2016 election: 44.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 52.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2012 election: 56.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 42.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
Popular vote split in 2008 election: 55.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 43.0% Republican (John McCain)
County population: 5,261

14. Whiteside County

Sterling+Illinois | Downtown Sterling, IL

Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 50.9% Democratic; 45.8% Republican
Popular vote split in 2020 election: 44.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 53.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2016 election: 43.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 49.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2012 election: 57.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 40.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
Popular vote split in 2008 election: 58.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 40.4% Republican (John McCain)
County population: 55,569

13. Winnebago County

Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 51.2% Democratic; 45.9% Republican
Popular vote split in 2020 election: 50.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 47.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2016 election: 47.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 47.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2012 election: 51.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
Popular vote split in 2008 election: 55.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 42.8% Republican (John McCain)
County population: 284,591

12. Dekalb County

Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 51.9% Democratic; 44.1% Republican
Popular vote split in 2020 election: 51.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 45.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2016 election: 46.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 43.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2012 election: 51.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
Popular vote split in 2008 election: 57.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 40.8% Republican (John McCain)
County population: 100,686

11. Peoria County

Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 52.0% Democratic; 45.0% Republican
Popular vote split in 2020 election: 51.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 45.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2016 election: 48.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 45.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2012 election: 51.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
Popular vote split in 2008 election: 56.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 42.3% Republican (John McCain)
County population: 181,186

10. Knox County

Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 52.3% Democratic; 44.9% Republican
Popular vote split in 2020 election: 46.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 51.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2016 election: 45.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 48.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2012 election: 57.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 40.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
Popular vote split in 2008 election: 59.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 39.3% Republican (John McCain)
County population: 49,751

9. Will County

Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 52.9% Democratic; 44.6% Republican
Popular vote split in 2020 election: 53.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 44.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2016 election: 50.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 44.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2012 election: 52.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
Popular vote split in 2008 election: 56.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 42.8% Republican (John McCain)
County population: 696,774

8. Jackson County

Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 53.1% Democratic; 42.6% Republican
Popular vote split in 2020 election: 49.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 48.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2016 election: 47.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 44.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2012 election: 55.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 41.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
Popular vote split in 2008 election: 59.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 37.9% Republican (John McCain)
County population: 53,176

7. Kane County

Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 53.5% Democratic; 43.6% Republican
Popular vote split in 2020 election: 56.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 41.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2016 election: 52.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 41.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2012 election: 49.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 48.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
Popular vote split in 2008 election: 55.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 43.4% Republican (John McCain)
County population: 517,254

6. Dupage County

Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 54.1% Democratic; 42.6% Republican
Popular vote split in 2020 election: 58.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 39.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2016 election: 53.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 38.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2012 election: 49.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 48.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
Popular vote split in 2008 election: 54.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 43.9% Republican (John McCain)
County population: 930,559

5. St. Clair County

Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 55.2% Democratic; 42.3% Republican
Popular vote split in 2020 election: 53.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 44.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2016 election: 50.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 44.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2012 election: 56.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 42.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
Popular vote split in 2008 election: 60.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 38.1% Republican (John McCain)
County population: 256,791

4. Champaign County

Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 56.3% Democratic; 39.5% Republican
Popular vote split in 2020 election: 60.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 37.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2016 election: 54.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 36.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2012 election: 52.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 45.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
Popular vote split in 2008 election: 57.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 40.3% Republican (John McCain)
County population: 206,525

3. Rock Island County

Rock Island County Courthouse - Rock Island, Illinois.JPG by Farragutful

Rock Island County Courthouse - Rock Island, Illinois.JPG (CC BY-SA 4.0) by Farragutful

Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 56.9% Democratic; 40.1% Republican
Popular vote split in 2020 election: 55.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 42.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2016 election: 50.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 42.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2012 election: 60.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 38.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
Popular vote split in 2008 election: 61.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 37.1% Republican (John McCain)
County population: 143,819

2. Lake County

Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 57.7% Democratic; 39.3% Republican
Popular vote split in 2020 election: 61.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 37.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2016 election: 56.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 36.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2012 election: 53.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 45.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
Popular vote split in 2008 election: 59.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 39.6% Republican (John McCain)
County population: 713,159

1. Cook County

Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 74.8% Democratic; 23.1% Republican
Popular vote split in 2020 election: 74.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 24.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2016 election: 74.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 21.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
Popular vote split in 2012 election: 74.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 24.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
Popular vote split in 2008 election: 76.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 22.8% Republican (John McCain)
County population: 5,225,367

About the Author Sam Stebbins →

Sam Stebbins is a writer at a673b.bigscoots-temp.com where his primary focus is on government policy, politics, companies, and broad social and economic trends. Sam has been writing in the money and news verticals for over 8 years and holds a bachelor's degree from Hobart College, which he earned in 2010. Sam resides in upstate New York and enjoys hiking, biking, canoeing, and skiing in the Adirondack Mountains and across the Northeast.