Since the mid-twentieth century, the global fertility rate has fallen by over 50%. In many countries — including Italy, Japan, Spain, and the United States — birth rates have decreased so much that population decline is imminent in the coming years, absent a commensurate increase in immigration.
Still, in aggregate, birth rates remain high enough globally that the population continues to expand — as it has every year since at least 1960. Over the last six decades, the number of people worldwide has more than doubled, from 3.0 billion to nearly 8 billion.
Globally, women are now having an average of 2.3 children in their lifetime, according to the World Bank. For a given country to maintain its population size — immigration notwithstanding — the average fertility rate should stand at around 2.1 children per woman. And even though birth rates are down in much of the world, there are many countries where fertility rates are well above the 2.1 threshold. In some cases, more than double.
Using data from the World Bank, 24/7 Wall St. identified the 30 countries with the highest fertility rates. Total fertility rates, or the average number of children women have in their lifetime, are for 2021, the latest year of available data. Supplemental data on population, population change, infrastructure, and GDP per capita are also from the World Bank.
Among the countries on this list, fertility rates range from about 4.0 to 6.8. While population growth is desirable in countries like the U.S., in poorer, less developed nations, rapid population expansion can put a strain on infrastructure, resources, and government programs – and by global standards, every country on this list is poor. (Here is a look at the world’s most impoverished countries.)
In each of the 30 countries with the highest fertility rates, per capita gross domestic product is well below the global average of $12,688. In most of these countries, GDP per capita is less than $2,000. Widespread poverty and low levels of development in many of these places are underscored by limited access to basic infrastructure. In 19 countries on this list, less than half of the population have access to electricity. (These are the countries Americans should not visit in 2024.)
In many of these places, fertility rates have been well above the key 2.1 threshold for years — and the consequences are already evident in demographic changes. Only one of these countries has a smaller population now than it did a decade ago, and in the rest, populations have expanded by anywhere from 16.2% to 40.5%. In the last year alone, every country on this list reported population growth between 1.5% to 3.8%. For context, the global population expanded by 10.0% and 0.8% over the same periods, respectively.
These are the 30 countries with the highest birth rates.
30. Guinea-Bissau
Fertility rate, 2021: 4.01 births per woman
Total population: 2,105,566
1-yr. population change, 2021-2022: +2.2% (+44,845 people)
10-yr. population change, 2013-2022: +24.0% (+407,813 people)
GDP per capita, 2022: $776
29. Liberia
Fertility rate, 2021: 4.09 births per woman
Total population: 5,302,681
1-yr. population change, 2021-2022: +2.1% (+109,265 people)
10-yr. population change, 2013-2022: +19.8% (+875,368 people)
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