Ralph Lauren Relief (RL)

Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) has posted net income of $113 million, which translates into $1.08 EPS for its Q3-2008.  This is up from its net income of $111 million, or $1.03 EPS, in Q3-2007. Revenues grew 11% to $1.27 Billion.  First Call had estimates at $0.77 EPS on revenues of $1.19 Billion.

Ralph Lauren is also giving 2008 forecasts as there is only one quarter left, but the company is also offering preliminary 2009 targets:

• For 2008, it sees low double-digit revenue gains, operating margins to decline by approximately 250 basis points, and sees EPS at the lower end of the range of $3.64 to $3.74 compared to a prior expectation of $3.50 to $3.60.  First Call has estimates at $3.47 EPS.
• For 2009, it projects revenues to increase by a low-to-mid single digit percentages, expects a 38% tax rate, sees roughly 106 million shares outstanding, and is initially setting a range of 2009 EPS at $3.95 to $4.05.  First Call has estimates at $4.31 EPS.

While this is under plan for 2009, this actually is not a major disappointment in the grand scheme of things.  If you are a value manager or a GARP manager, there is ammo for both.  Based on the pre-market price being static, this would generate a current year P/E ratio for 2008 of 16.1 and a forward 2009 P/E ratio of 14.6 at the mid-point of the range.

Shares were initially down on this report, but now shares are indicated slightly higher by 2% at $58.70.  The 52-week trading range is $50.55 to $102.58, so there has already been a full blown market price correction to adjust for a slower growing company here.

Jon C. Ogg
February 6, 2008