For some reason, retailers have been thinking that this holiday season would be bad but not brutal. Industry experts have been saying sales might only be up 2% or 3% year-over-year.
Someone must have been drinking the good stuff. Any man on the street could have told the retail industry that sales this year will be off, way off. People are too worried about their jobs and have no credit.
According to Reuters, "U.S. holiday retail sales will fall 1 percent this year, according to America’s Research Group, marking the first time the research firm has forecast a decline in almost a quarter century of surveys."
The figures are still much to optimistic. Perhaps, researchers do not want to drive retail firms to despair.
With car sales running off 30% and home sales in the worst shape in US history, it would be astonishing if the consumer did not pull back 10% or greater on their holiday purchases. They are remarkably poor and the holidays will not change that.
And, there will be a lot more jobs lost in the economy between now and mid-December.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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