A Mediocre Start For Retail On Black Friday

The fears about 2009 holiday sales may be coming true. Early research shows that retail activity was flat and in some regions fell sharply.

ShopperTrak reports that dollar sales for the first day of the holiday retail season were only up .5% to $10.66 billion. But, in the population-heavy Northeast they fell 4.9%.

A number of retail CEOs lead by the chief of Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) expect a “tough” holiday. As Brian Dunn, head of the consumer electronics store chain told Reuters, “I think it is going to be a tough holiday season… The brands that have lost connection with their customers are going to have difficulty.”

Data from the first week of December may show that shoppers exhausted themselves and their pocketbooks on Black Friday. It depends on whether buyers are shopping earlier than usual this year, believing that stores offered their best deal as the official holiday retail season began.

There are a number of factors that could do more damage to retail sales. Unemployment and trouble with access to credit will bedevil the retail industry. The jobless numbers for November will be out in a few days. If they are bad, people who still have jobs may find it sobering, and decide that their best bet is to stay home.

Douglas A. McIntyre