The closer the heart of the holiday shopping comes, the more it appears that it will be a good one and will help erase the memory of an awful 2008 and a 2009 which was not much better.
A new Gallup poll shows that spending plans are about the same as last year and that people are feeling are confident in their financial futures.
“Self-reported daily consumer spending in stores, restaurants, gas stations, and online averaged $66 per day in the week ending Nov. 21 — not much different than the $69 of the same week in 2009 — but below the $74 comparable of the same week in 2008.”
But, “Half (51%) of Americans say they feel able right now to make a major purchase, such as a car, appliance, or furniture — up from 46% in the same week of 2009.” And, “Americans say they will spend an average of $714 on Christmas gifts this year — up sharply from the $638 they estimated in November 2009.”
The proof of this optimism will depend on whether people actually spend. Holiday shoppers may have to dip into their bank accounts or tap lines of credit– behavior many consumers have avoided since the start of the recession — to have a jolly holiday season.
It says as much about consumer optimism regarding 2011 as it does now if people head to stores and malls with great enthusiasm. These shoppers will almost certainly have to believe that unemployment will get better next year and perhaps that the housing market will recover. It unlikely that people will part with large amounts of money unless they have confidence that they can replace it soon.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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