Holiday Sales Grow, but Pessimism Lurks

Virtually every estimate of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales growth puts the improvement in the double digits. That is even true with the traditionally slow-growing bricks-and-mortar sector. But economists are worried that the improvement cannot last until the end of the year. Based on new research, that concern is warranted.

New data from Gallup shows that Black Friday expenditures did rise. Average spending per shopper was $98 for the day.  “This is up from $92 a year ago and exceeds the Black Friday spending of each of the past three years,” Gallup reports.

The same report Gallup also indicates that pessimism about the economy is greater than last year, which makes an ongoing surge in holiday sales improbable:

Even as consumers are spending more during Black Friday week, Americans remain substantially more pessimistic about the future course of the U.S. economy than they were at this time in 2009 and 2010. More than one-third of consumers said the economy was “getting better” during Black Friday week in 2009 and 2010. Now, less than one in four Americans say the economy is improving — not much better than the less than one in five who said this during this same week in 2008.

The question now is what could derail the level of holiday spending improvement in the next few days? Opinion about the economic future is fragile enough that it could be a number of things. A greater threat of the break-up of Europe would qualify. So would a November jobs report that shows a slowing rate of unemployment improvement. The most probable cause would be a sharp drop in the stock market, which many people view as a proxy for the overall economy.

The success of this year’s shopping season is hardly assured.

Methodology: Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking during the period of Monday to Saturday during the week of Black Friday in 2008 – 2011, with random three-day samples averaging about 1,500 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit dial sampling.

Douglas A. McIntyre