UN: Global Population To Hit 10 Billion

The world’s population is likely to reach 10.1 billion people by the end of the century up from 7 billion this year. It will reach 9.3 billion along the way–probably in 2050.

There is nothing astonishing about the number, at least not for those who have watched population growth in China, India, and other developing nations. Some of these counties have tried to throttle the number of children per family. That has not worked. It is hard to regulate the actions of billions of people. And child mortality rates in many countries are so high that it is understandable families would want to have more offspring.

The UN data has caused the agency and other organizations and experts to make the predictable forecasts that there will be unimaginable famine. A great deal of the increase of people will be in nations which cannot feed their people now. There is no reason to think that terrible problem will change.

Disease and plague used to cull the world’s population. That has not happened since 1918 when a flu pandemic killed 100 million people which was over 5% of the people in the world. Many scientists think that modern detection and medicine will keep this kind of catastrophe from happening again. But, that is merely a guess. Just two years ago, H1N1 influenza was supposed  to spread around the globe and kill millions, according to the World Health Organization. Its warning turned out to be wrong.

Disease is not likely to be the most important factor in whether the world’s population will spike. Drought and ignorance are much more likely candidates. Large portions of the richest agricultural regions of the world have had little rain this year. Perhaps the effects of global warming have taken hold, although this is nothing more than a worry for now. What is not a guess is that people in many food-deprived parts of the world do not know how to farm, or, if they do, their access to modern equipment and seed is lacking.

It may be hard to accept that the barrier to the hyper-active population grow the UN predicts is a lack of available food. With the global birth rate as it is and a worldwide food shortage already a severe problem, what else is likely to prevent the rise to 10.1 million?

Douglas A. McIntyre