Black Friday Shoppers to Surge, But Will They Buy?

A new study by the National Federation of Retailers makes a prediction that runs counter to almost every other forecast of holiday shopping activity. The data shows that the number of people who say they “definitely” will shop over the three days following Thanksgiving will rise to 33% from 27% last year. Either every other estimate from researchers about shopper volume is too low, or the shoppers who will shop will not be buyers.

According to a preliminary Black Friday shopping survey, conducted for the National Retail Federation by BIGresearch, up to 152 million people plan to shop Black Friday weekend (Friday, Saturday and Sunday), higher than the 138 million people who planned to do so last year.

There is some chance that more shoppers will make holiday purchases on the Black Friday weekend but fewer in December. That would make the final month of the year grim for retailers that hope to get last-minute buyers, and those that sometimes lower prices to do so. This year, there appears to be a larger push by huge retailers like Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT) to capture sales early. Stores will open earlier than in past years and bargains have already been advertised.

The NRF data should cause some confusion. Its earlier numbers said holiday sales would be up less than 3% this year. Other data show the same. E-commerce activity may be higher by the low double digits. This is expected, however, to rob revenue from bricks-and-mortar operations.

The NRF study is a false signal. Consumer confidence is too low. Unemployment is too high. Worries about the economy in early 2012 are too great. And, tax cuts may not be extended into next year. The holidays will be tough for retailers again in 2012.

Douglas A. McIntyre