Now that Black Friday is virtually upon us and retailers are gearing up for what they hope will be a robust holiday shopping season, the folks at Gallup have published a survey Wednesday morning indicating that for the first time more than half of all Americans are very or somewhat likely to do their holiday shopping online this year. According to Gallup, some 53% of shoppers will hit the keyboard this year, the same percentage as expect to shop in specialty stores.

Brick-and-mortar retailers continue to get more shoppers, but the trend is clear: online shopping percentages are growing and store-shopping is declining. The following chart from Gallup mapping the past 20 years makes the point clearly:

As a destination for shoppers’ dollars, online passed catalog shopping in 2004 and has now pulled even with shopping at specialty stores. Discount stores have managed to hold at 72% since 2004, but department store shopping has dropped from 77% to 74%. The decline is not rapid, but some of the shopping in department stores and specialty stores may be showrooming — looking over the merchandise, making a decision to buy, and then purchasing it online.

A Gallup survey released last week indicates that up to 10% of a store’s customers may just be showrooming. To add to the problem the bricks-and-mortar stores face, the same poll shows that 40% of Americans have showroomed. Presumably, that increases the odds that they would do it again.

Some major retailers, like J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP) and the Sears and Kmart operations of Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD), cannot afford to lose a single sale. Both companies continue to fight for their lives as sales stagnate or fall. The forecasts both have given for the holiday season are less than optimistic. At stake for them during the upcoming six weeks are thousands of jobs and scores of store locations.

Even retailers that are financially very viable cannot withstand the showrooming trend indefinitely. In its most recent fiscal year, Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) had net income of $1.2 billion on revenue of $27.7 billion — little better than 4% growth. Macy’s needs every dollar it can make. Why else would the store choose to open on Thanksgiving Day?

Online shopping is open 24/7/365 and consumers can shop whenever they choose. That is fierce competition, and the bricks-and-mortar stores have been losing for years and very likely will continue to lose for years to come.

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