J.C. Penney shares have hovered at $9 since March. It had a slight increase in sales early in the year, ending a protracted drop which lasted for nearly two years. Concerns about Chapter 11 began to melt. On the other hand, the numbers were not good enough to encourage accelerated purchasing of the stock. Penney may not be dying, but it is not healthy either.
The retailer will release its earnings on August 14. Analysts expect revenue to grow 4.4% to $2.8 billion. Penney is expected to lose $.94 a share compared to a loss of $2.20 a year ago. To make matters worse, it is not expected to make money next quarter, or even next year.
Penney’s figures for last quarter appeared strong when measured against most retailer results.. Same store sales rose 6.2%, compared to over a year of same-store sales losses of over 20%. But, Penney still lost money–on an operating basis $247 million. Based on management’s forecasts, same-store sales will not be any better than single digits for the upcoming year.
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The reason Penney has not recovered more is no different from those of any other troubled retailer. People are tired of the brand. They have moved on to Macy’s (NYSE: M) or Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN). And, Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) has been just as unkind to Penney as to any other retailer. The company said online sales rose 25.7% last quarter. However, it did not mention a sales number for online, which is a sign the figure was modest at best.
Penney’s recovery is so fragile that if its upcoming quarterly earnings release is poor, whatever small hope investors have for a recovery will be gone altogether.
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