The most ready explanation is that consumer spending has slumped, or perhaps never completely recovered from the recession. The National Retail Federation expects holiday sales will rise only 4.1% in November and December to $616.9 billion. If that is the case, Amazon and Walmart will both have to increase their share of market to post impressive growth. Analysts who adopt this gloomy industry forecast would argue that both companies face uphill battles, because of consumer sentiment.
On the other hand, while there is a case that Amazon’s revenue in the current quarter will grow at near the 20%, which it did in the quarter reported last week, the e-commerce company’s own forecast growth could be much more modest:
Net sales are expected to be between $27.3 billion and $30.3 billion, or to grow between 7% and 18% compared with fourth quarter 2013.
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Amazon’s problem may not be an industrywide one. To its detriment, shoppers may have migrated to other e-commerce sites or back to brick-and-mortar retailers. If so, Walmart may be a beneficiary.
Walmart has stepped up its own e-commerce effort as it tries to attack Amazon’s position. Fernando Madeira, the head of Walmart Latin America, was moved in June to run Walmart.com in the United States and other regions in which the huge retailer operates. Walmart is going well beyond executive appointments to increase its e-commerce business. Recently, its management announced:
Investments in e-commerce and digital initiatives are expected to range between $1.2 and $1.5 billion in fiscal year 2016, up from approximately $1.0 billion, estimated for this year.
However, these initiatives may be unable to move Walmart into a better position online. According to research firm comScore, among people who accessed websites in the United States in March, Amazon sites had 103 million unique visitors. Walmart sites had 34.2 million. And the yardstick does not measure mobile users, which Amazon tries to attract through efforts like the software on its Fire smartphone and its Prime loyalty program.
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Whether or not due to Amazon, Walmart’s U.S. growth has been poor for several quarters, and it expects growth to remain poor in the current quarter. The company recently warned sales will be worse than previously forecast.
To bring the analysis full circle, if both Walmart and Amazon have lowered expectations for the holidays, it is the industry, and not just the two companies, that is in trouble.
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