Analyst’s 5 Top Retail Stock Picks for the Holiday Shopping Season

Holiday shopping can often provide a large chunk of a retailer’s total year, so big numbers become crucial. The National Retail Foundation is expecting holiday sales to increase 4.1% in 2014, a healthy gain over last holiday season’s 3.1% increase. Sales in November and December can account for as much as 30% of a retailer’s annual sales and make up nearly 20% of the industry’s annual $3.2 trillion.

Here are the five top retail stocks to buy now from Piper Jaffray.

Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) is already touting a huge list of items that are Black Friday priced and are sure to drive strong floor traffic. With new items like ultra HD 4K TVs, a continued rush by consumers to upgrade to the iPhone 6, exciting new offerings from companies like GoPro and top video game and consoles, the company is posed to continue what has been almost an unchallenged rebound. The Piper Jaffray team also sees a nice expansion in gross margins, which may meaningfully lift revenue.

Best Buy investors a paid a very respectable 2.1% dividend. The Piper Jaffray price target for the stock is $39. The Thomson/First Call consensus target is at $36.87. The stock closed Monday at $35.29.

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Coty Inc. (NYSE: COTY) is a cosmetics leader, and with 20% of the company’s market cap in cash, the analysts see ample flexibility to grow through strategic acquisitions and partnerships. Coty recently announced the intended acquisition of Bourjois from Chanel. The Piper Jaffray team also believe the company is very well-positioned to grab market share, given its focus on the color cosmetics category, which is leading growth in beauty.

Coty shareholders are paid a 1% dividend. The Piper Jaffray price target is $20, while the consensus target is $19.17. Shares closed Monday at $18.98.

Del Frisco’s Restaurant Group Inc. (NASDAQ: DFRG) offers merry holiday revelers some of the country’s top high-end dining spots. With consumer and business expense spending on dining and entertainment finally rebounding after years of stagnant growth, the Piper Jaffray analysts see the Del Friscos group of restaurants as a logical winner. The company operates restaurants under the Del Frisco’s Double Eagle Steakhouse, Sullivan’s Steakhouse and Del Frisco’s Grille names. Solid expansion has driven solid profits for the company.

The Piper Jaffray price target is $29, and the consensus target is higher at $31.25. Shares closed at $22.83.

Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: KORS) has been a hot retail name in clothing and accessories, and it could be the epitome of the social media advertiser. As one of the fastest growing luxury brands in the world, the company has the cushion of the high-dollar consumer, but that hasn’t stopped it from pursuing an aggressive social media branding and sales agenda. When looking at holiday wish lists, Michael Kors was the number one fashion brand listed in the Piper Jaffray unaided survey, a stat that bodes well for holiday sales.

Piper Jaffray has a price target of $98, and the consensus target is posted at $94.60. Shares closed ended Monday at $72.32.

Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) is one of the leading fashion specialty retailers based in the United States. Founded in 1901 as a shoe store in Seattle, Nordstrom now operates 260 stores in 35 states. Its strong square footage growth profile and best in-class e-commerce business should drive solid dividend growth going forward. And the company is slated to create multiple events for multiple channels to encourage holiday shopping this year, including from its 4 million plus growing Fashion Rewards loyalty shoppers.

Nordstrom shareholders are paid a 1.8% dividend, after a 10% rise last February. The Piper Jaffray price objective is $81, and the consensus target is $73.48. Nordstrom closed Monday at $73.27.

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With lower gasoline prices and a slowly but surely improving job market, Americans are poised to be a lot more jolly this year. While hardly expected to be the blowout holiday season of the halcyon 1990s, the entire retail outlook is set for a much better year.