What to Expect From Starbucks Earnings

Retail

Published: January 22, 2015 9:55 am

Last Updated: January 22, 2015 9:59 am

Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) will report its fiscal first-quarter results Thursday after the market close. Thomson Reuters has consensus estimates of $0.80 in earnings per share and $4.80 billion in revenue. In the first quarter of the previous year, it posted $0.71 in earnings per share and revenue of $4.24 billion.

According to Goldman Sachs, Starbucks dominates the retail coffee business in the United States, and the international growth is helping to boost earnings. Yet the stock has been a very uneven performer over the past year, and it is just now getting back to the trading levels of back in November of 2013. With a rapid expansion in China, and what could have been an outstanding holiday selling season, an earnings surprise may be in the cards.

At the end of the first quarter, Starbucks was stuck with excess inventory and as a result it priced this inventory at 50% off to clear away products that had lost popularity. The “End of the Year” sales at Starbucks show that even the most successful company can get caught with unwanted products. It is also a reminder that, in some businesses, inventory decisions are important, while in others the problem does not exist at all.

Morgan Stanley weighed in on Starbucks in the first half of January, maintaining an Overweight rating and raising its price target to $97 from $88. This implies upside of 19% from Wednesday’s close. The highest analyst price target is $100.

The 50-day moving average is currently at $80.51, and it has been tested since the beginning of the new year. The 200-day moving average is immaterial at $76.11.

Shares of Starbucks were flat at $81.30 just after the opening bell in Tuesday’s trading session. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $91.14 and a 52-week trading range of $67.93 to $84.20. The market cap is about $61 billion.

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