Is El Pollo Loco’s Drop Overdone?

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By Chris Lange Published
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El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LOCO) reported its second-quarter financial results after the markets closed on Thursday, with horrendously perceived results. Perhaps one of the biggest detractors from earnings was the drop in comparable sales that ended a 15-quarter streak.

The crazy chicken had $0.19 in earnings per share (EPS) on $89.5 million in revenue, compared to consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters that call for $0.18 in EPS on $92.96 million in revenue. The same period from the previous year had $0.16 in EPS on $86.90 million in revenue.

Comparable company-operated restaurant sales in the second quarter decreased 0.5%, driven by a 3.9% decrease in traffic, partially offset by a 3.4% increase in average check. This actually breaks the 15-consecutive quarter streak in which El Pollo Loco had increased its comparable sales in each quarter.

Restaurant contribution was $18.0 million, compared to $18.4 million in the second quarter of 2014. Franchise revenue increased 6.0% to $5.9 million, from $5.5 million year over year.

In terms of its guidance, El Pollo Loco expects net income per share, on a pro forma basis, to be in the range of $0.67 to $0.71, as well as growth in comparable restaurant sales in the range of roughly 3% — down from 3% to 5% — and the restaurant contribution margin of 21.2% to 21.5%. The consensus estimates moved up slightly since then to EPS of $0.70 and $371.26 million in revenue from $0.68 in EPS on revenue of $369.30 million.

Shares of the crazy chicken were down 18.3% at $15.00 on Friday afternoon. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $27.67 and a 52-week trading range of $17.51 to $40.89.

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About the Author Chris Lange →

Chris Lange is a writer for 24/7 Wall St., based in Houston. He has covered financial markets over the past decade with an emphasis on healthcare, tech, and IPOs. During this time, he has published thousands of articles with insightful analysis across these complex fields. Currently, Lange's focus is on military and geopolitical topics.

Lange's work has been quoted or mentioned in Forbes, The New York Times, Business Insider, USA Today, MSN, Yahoo, The Verge, Vice, The Intelligencer, Quartz, Nasdaq, The Motley Fool, Fox Business, International Business Times, The Street, Seeking Alpha, Barron’s, Benzinga, and many other major publications.

A graduate of Southwestern University in Georgetown, Texas, Lange majored in business with a particular focus on investments. He has previous experience in the banking industry and startups.

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