Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) reported fourth-quarter financial results on Tuesday, and this was perhaps one of its most important earnings reports ever, being the first report after the E. coli scare. As a result, analysts poured into the stock, speculating on where it might go next.
The company had $2.17 in earnings per share (EPS) on $998 million in revenue, compared to consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters of $1.86 in EPS on revenue of $1.01 billion. The same period from the previous year had $3.84 in EPS on $1.07 billion in revenue.
Comparable restaurant sales decreased 14.6% for the fourth quarter, but this was expected when the company announced its guidance about a month ago.
During this quarter, Chipotle opened 79 new restaurants, bringing the total restaurant count to 2,010. Going forward, the company expects to open 220 to 235 new restaurants in 2016.
Restaurant level operating margin was 19.6% in the quarter, a decrease of 700 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2014. The decrease was primarily driven by the significant decrease in comparable restaurant sales and non-recurring costs related to the food-borne illness incidents, partially offset by favorable food costs.
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Steve Ells, founder, chairman and co-CEO of Chipotle, commented on earnings:
The fourth quarter of 2015 was the most challenging period in Chipotle’s history, but the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has now concluded its investigation into the recent E. coli incidents associated with Chipotle. We are pleased to have this behind us and can place our full energies to implementing our enhanced food safety plan that will establish Chipotle as an industry leader in food safety. We are extremely focused on executing this program, which designs layers of redundancy and enhanced safety measures to reduce the food safety risk to a level as near to zero as is possible. By adding these programs to an already strong and proven food culture, we strongly believe that we can establish Chipotle as a leader in food safety just as we have become a leader in our quest for the very best ingredients we can find.
A few analysts weighed in on Chipotle after this earnings report:
- Barclays has an Equal Weight rating but lowered its price target to $450 from $465.
- Cowen has a Market Perform rating but lowered its price target to $413.
- Credit Suisse has an Outperform rating but lowered its price target to $475.
- Goldman Sachs has a Buy rating but lowered its price target to $550 from $600.
- Jefferies has a Hold rating but lowered its price target to $390 from $420.
- Maxim Group has a Hold rating but lowered its price target to $450 from $455.
- Piper Jaffray has an Overweight rating but lowered its price target to $479 from $500.
- RBC Capital Markets has an Outperform rating but lowered its price target to $500 from $550.
- Wells Fargo raised its rating to Outperform from Market Perform.
Shares of Chipotle ended trading at $459.98 on Friday, with a consensus analyst price target of $474.39 and a 52-week trading range of $399.14 to $758.61.
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