Earnings Previews for IBM and AMD

International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is the far more important of the two reports. It is the second largest Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) component, due to the index being price-weighted. What makes IBM also important is that it has seen no real growth, outside of the stock buyback driving up the earnings per share (EPS).

Thomson Reuters has EPS estimates of $5.99 (up from $5.39 a year ago), and revenue is expected to have contracted by 3.6% to $28.25 billion. Guidance is going to be even more closely watched:

• Current quarter: $3.27 EPS and $23.3 billion in revenue
• 2014: $17.97 EPS and $101.2 billion in revenue
• IBM keeps maintaining at least $20 in earnings per share for 2015.

At $188, IBM is one of the most unloved of all DJIA stocks. That means that any growth could be met with short covering and bargain buying. After all, now it trades at 10.4 times expected 2014 earnings and 9.4 times expected 2015 earnings. Still, with no growth and with IBM looking to exit lower-end servers, it is hard to imagine where the growth comes from. The cloud business is eating into IBM, and Watson may be too narrow to be the next great driver.

IBM’s 52-week range is $172.57 to $215.90, and the consensus price target is only about $193.60.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) is no longer systemically important for the broad stock market, but it is a very important quarter for AMD (and for Intel). Intel dropped after its earnings report and dragged down AMD shares too.

AMD has tried to recapture half of the post-Intel share loss, and the stock is back above $4.25 ahead of earnings. EPS estimates call for $0.06 (versus a net loss of $0.14 per share a year ago), and sales are expected to be up 33% to $1.54 billion. This would mark a second quarter of profitability in a very long turnaround maneuver, driven mostly by the graphics chip and processor wins from the new Xbox One and PlayStation 4.

What really matters for AMD is whether it can achieve its 2014 plan. Thomson Reuters is calling for $0.13 per share on 11.4% sales growth to $5.85 billion for 2014 revenue. AMD’s opportunity likely is not so much in the declining PC market, but elsewhere in video game consoles, new gaming PCs, customized designs and ultimately in other graphics-rich sectors of processing.

Trading near $4.27, AMD’s 52-week range is $2.26 to $4.65, and its consensus price target is close by at about $4.25. Options traders are expecting a move of $0.45 or so in either direction, which signals that AMD shares could be up or down 10% or more after the report.

Both IBM and AMD earnings will be important to watch on Tuesday. IBM is important for the broader market and AMD is important for its turnaround.