Xerox Earnings Analysis: A Turnaround Value Trap

Xerox reported income of $281 million, down about $15 million from the first quarter of 2013. Its earnings per share were flat from a year ago at $0.23 (and at $0.27 ex-items), but that is due to a smaller float of shares from its buybacks, as the company spent $275 million buying back stock. Xerox had previously forecast that its adjusted earnings would come in at $0.23 to $0.25 per share for the quarter. Xerox also reported that its operating margin was 8.6%, with a gross margin of 30.2%.

To add insult to the declining metrics, Xerox lowered its 2014 guidance. Guidance for the second quarter was put in a range of $0.25 to $0.27 per share, versus a consensus estimate of $0.28. Its full 2014 guidance was cut to $1.07 to $1.13 per share. Its prior range was put up at $1.10 to $1.16 in earnings per share, and the consensus was $1.13 per share before the cut.

Xerox shares were down more than 2% at $11.23 shortly after the open, and its 52-week range is $8.11 to $12.65. The consensus price target among analysts is $11.61.

Again, Xerox wants to be known in the future as a document management provider rather than a copier company. This transition is not coming easily — and time is ticking for CEO Ursula Burns.

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While there has been no growth to speak of, and while there is almost no growth expected in 2014 and 2015, Xerox does at least trade cheaply on the surface at about 10 times expected earnings per share. The company also has a 2.25% dividend yield, now that it recently raised its payout. This has all the hallmarks of a value stock, but the reality is that Xerox feels like a perpetual value trap.