What to Expect From SanDisk, Before and After Earnings

SanDisk’s stock performance also creates a conundrum for investors. Coming into this week, SanDisk performance was not just above the market. Its stock was up almost 40% in the past quarter, and its stock was up by almost 50% since the end of 2013. As of Wednesday’s mid-day price of $106.40, SanDisk shares had doubled from the 52-week low — and the 52-week high of $107.13 was actually an all-time high.

The company’s earnings per share (EPS) estimates are $1.39 (versus $1.21 last year) and $1.6 billion in revenue (up more than 8% from last year). Estimates for the next quarter are $1.57 EPS and $1.74 billion in revenue, and for 2014 the consensus estimates are $6.09 EPS and $6.73 billion in revenues.

SanDisk’s consensus analyst price target is $112.11, but we would caution that analysts keep chasing SanDisk shares higher and higher. Our take is that SanDisk cannot simply meet estimates and reaffirm guidance. It has to beat estimates handily and raise estimates yet again.

SanDisk is a stock that often looks cheap on an earnings multiple. The reason is because it is a super-cyclical business, and it is subject to big hits and bad misses. The current valuation is about 17 times expected 2014 EPS and about 16 times expected 2015 EPS.

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