PC Sales to Drop, Rock Chip and Windows Sales

IDC, a well-respected tech research firm, issued its new forecast:

Worldwide PC shipments are expected to fall by -4.9% in 2015, a drop from the previous forecast of -3.3%, while growth projections for 2016 and 2017 were raised slightly, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. Fourth quarter 2014 (4Q14) results were 1.7% ahead of forecast, but economic and product changes will create a head wind in the short term. Total 2015 volume is projected at 293.1 million PCs, slipping a little further to 291.4 million in 2019. In value terms, the PC market reached US$201 billion in 2014, a decline of -0.8%, and is expected to fall another -6.9% in 2015 with smaller declines in subsequent years bringing the total to US$175 billion by 2019.

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So, in the long term, both sales and price leverage will decline as time passes, likely compounded by the rise of smartphones, which have spiked. IDC expects sales in emerging markets to fall 4.7% this year due to:

Continued political instability, commodity pricing pressures, and currency devaluations in these regions have curtailed spending across a number of sectors, including public projects that provided a boost in recent years

Developed markets have been the slow growth sector of most of the world’s economy in recent years. Future PC sales improvements should stagger in these regions over time, according to IDC:

Mature regions continued to fare better, ending 2014 with positive growth of 8.4% for the year, the first growth year since 2010. This growth was supported by XP system replacements, slowing tablet purchases, and aggressive PC pricing. Nevertheless, PC volumes in mature regions are expected to drop by -5.1% in 2015 with incremental declines thereafter. Building on the strength of 2014 volume as well as attractive products in the premium and low-priced segments, projections for PC volume in mature regions are up slightly to 134 million in 2019 from the prior forecast of 130 million.

Microsoft has been, and will continue to be, harmed by the cycle of Windows upgrades. However, as new versions come out, the software company will post a lift. Intel should not have such an improved future because of pressure on chip prices. PC companies will not dodge the pricing problem either, particularly due to the rise of new competition from China.

Chip, software and PC manufacturers cannot avoid a trend that has become relentless declines. Whatever stability the industry had last year will disappear.

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