Is Qualcomm Activist Only Short-Term Oriented?

According to a report at The Wall Street Journal that claims to have reviewed Jana’s quarterly investor letter, the hedge fund also wants the chipmaker to cut costs, speed up a share buyback, disclose more information and shake up the company’s board of directors. Qualcomm has already said it has a buyback program for $15 billion worth of stock and will raise its quarterly dividend.

One question worth asking in virtually any version of this scenario is whether the activist is looking at a one-time, short-term gain or actually wants a change that could have a positive impact on a company’s performance over a longer period. Moody’s Investor Services pointed out earlier this month that “[s]hareholder activism is rarely good for credit investors.” We looked at this issue in more detail just last week.

Criticism that longer term credit risk will rise is unlikely to stop the more determined activists, like Jana, which last year gained board seats at the company that is now Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NYSE: WBA). Jana was among the big Walgreen pre-acquisition investors that tried to persuade the firm to move to Switzerland in order to cut its tax bills.

ALSO READ: 7 Analyst Stocks Under $10 With Massive Upside Calls

Is Qualcomm’s chip-making business really worth nothing as Jana claims in its investor letter? Qualcomm’s book value per share was about $23.50 at the end of the December quarter, which puts a value of about $38 billion on the company’s assets. The Wall Street Journal noted that analysts at Arete Research Services last month figured that Qualcomm’s chip-making business could be worth $74 billion and its patent-licensing business could be valued at $84 billion.

The argument Qualcomm has made for not spinning off its chip business is that its two businesses support one another. Maybe that is true, but spinning off a minority share of the outstanding stock would not change that, and such a move would let the market decide how much the chip business is worth, which is probably somewhere between zero and $74 billion.

Qualcomm’s stock traded higher Monday morning, up about 1.8% at $70.39, in a 52-week range of $62.26 to $81.97. The stock’s consensus price target is $76.50.