Why Check Point Could Be the Top Cybersecurity Stock Ahead

By Chris Lange Published Apr 21, 10:55AM EDT

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Cybersecurity is becoming increasingly important as consumers and businesses alike need to protect their interests. The independent research firm Argus sees potential in one of the oldest leaders in cybersecurity, Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ: CHKP). In fact it now has the highest price target among analysts, and that target signals an upside of 17.5% from the current price.

Argus upgraded Check Point’s stock rating to Buy from Hold and set its price target at a street-high $103. The firm maintained its 2015 earnings per share estimate of $4.00 and raised its 2016 estimate by a penny to $4.36. While Check Point stock has had a good run in the past year (28%), Argus thinks that it is well positioned to ramp higher in the current malware threat environment. The company continues to introduce innovative new products in a challenging threat environment for Internet security.

Check Point is considered one of the few established players in Internet security by Argus, with both the technology and the management stability needed to take advantage of an increasingly toxic malware threat environment. The company’s focus on advanced threat protection and mobile services addresses the needs of most companies, not just for the perimeter defense of IT networks but also for the detection and neutralization of advanced threats.

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On a side note, and unlike many of the new security firms that still lose money, Check Point has been public since the 1990s, it trades at 22 times expected earnings and it has a $16 billion market cap.

Argus noted in the report that the company’s software blade products continue to drive results, with another 20% revenue growth in the first quarter of 2015, while other segments posted mid-single-digit to low double-digit growth. Check Point will accelerate investments in the first half of 2015 to take advantage of emerging IT security opportunities, and the company expects these investments to pay off later in 2015 and in 2016. These investments may be seen not only in the company’s recent tuck-in acquisitions, but also in the ongoing expansion of its sales and sales support staff.

Back in February, Check Point announced its acquisition of Hyperwise, an early-stage company that has developed an advanced CPU-level threat prevention engine that eliminates threats at the point of preinfection. The company plans to integrate Hyperwise into its Threat Emulation offering, which should increase its malware catch rates and block previously undetected attacks. The terms of the deal were not disclosed.

In early April, Check Point also announced the acquisition of Lacoon Mobile Security. Lacoon produces a comprehensive mobile security software solution for iOS and Android devices, and real-time mobile security and intelligence for enterprise-grade mobile security platforms. The acquisition is intended to strengthen the behavioral risk analysis and real-time threat detection capabilities of Checkpoint’s Advanced Mobile Application Threat Emulation offering.

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Most recently, Check Point announced a partnership with FireEye Inc. (NASDAQ: FEYE) on April 20. The two companies will share threat intelligence about advanced attacks and provide their customers with near-real-time threat intelligence data to thwart zero-day attacks. Note that a zero-day attack is a cyberattack that seeks to exploit a previously unknown vulnerability in a computer application or operating system.

In terms of Argus’s valuation of Check Point, the shares are trading near the high end of their 52-week range of $60.50 to $88.18. At the same time they have risen 28% in the past year, compared to a 12% increase for the S&P 500. Separately, Check Point’s enterprise value to trailing 12-month sales multiple is 7.9, well above the peer median of 6.6, and the enterprise value to trailing 12-month EBITDA multiple is 14.6, also above the peer median of 12.4.

Argus’s three-stage discounted cash flow model points to a fair value for Check Point of $105 per share, above current levels. As a result, the firm raised its rating to Buy with a target price of $103.

Shares of Check Point were up 1% at $86.77 in morning trading Tuesday. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $88.44, which implies a small upside of 0.9%.

If investors are looking for a broader play in data security and in cybersecurity, there is always the PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (NYSEMKT: HACK). This is a new exchange traded funds that covers many of the cybersecurity stocks. Check Point carries roughly a 4% weighting in this ETF on last look, lower than CyberArk, FireEye, Palo Alto Networks and many others. This ETF was up 2.2% at $30.21 on Tuesday morning, after hitting a new high earlier in the session.

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About the Author Chris Lange →

Chris Lange is a writer for 24/7 Wall St., based in Houston. He has covered financial markets over the past decade with an emphasis on healthcare, tech, and IPOs. During this time, he has published thousands of articles with insightful analysis across these complex fields. Currently, Lange's focus is on military and geopolitical topics.

Lange's work has been quoted or mentioned in Forbes, The New York Times, Business Insider, USA Today, MSN, Yahoo, The Verge, Vice, The Intelligencer, Quartz, Nasdaq, The Motley Fool, Fox Business, International Business Times, The Street, Seeking Alpha, Barron’s, Benzinga, and many other major publications.

A graduate of Southwestern University in Georgetown, Texas, Lange majored in business with a particular focus on investments. He has previous experience in the banking industry and startups.