What to Expect From Autodesk Earnings

By Chris Lange Published Aug 27, 11:40AM EDT

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Autodesk Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK) is scheduled to report its fiscal second-quarter financial results on Thursday after the markets close. The consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters call for $0.17 in earnings per share (EPS) on $612.42 million in revenue. In the same period of the previous year, it posted EPS of $0.35 and revenue of $637.10 million.

In an effort to address the evolving needs of its users, Autodesk has shifted to more cloud computing options, increasing its suite offerings and expanding its product lines. Most analysts are positive on the outlook going forward. Credit Suisse has perhaps the most bullish outlook on the company.

Credit Suisse reiterated an Outperform rating for Autodesk with an $80 price target, implying upside of 60% from current prices. What stands out was that Credit Suisse added Autodesk to its U.S. Focus and Global Focus Lists. Despite medium-term downside risk to fiscal 2017 and 2018 numbers, Credit Suisse sees Autodesk’s business model changes driving post-transition earnings of $8.00 per share in 2023, versus the $4.00 consensus.

The firm estimates that Autodesk’s business model changes will drive post-transition, “normalized” earnings power of $8.00 per share (on $6.344 billion in revenue) in fiscal 2023. However, Wall Street wanted a straightforward calculation of Autodesk’s post-transition revenue, similar to Adobe’s simple equation. That is: Creative Suite user base × Creative Cloud average selling price (ASP) = Adobe’s subscription revenue.

At Investor Day 2014, Autodesk stated that it had 2.9 million users not on subscription or maintenance, in addition to the 2.1 million active maintenance/subscription users. Based on its disclosures, Credit Suisse calculated that Autodesk maintains 1.717 million LT users (0.412 million subscribers and 1.305 million non-subscribers) and 3.283 million users of the remainder of its product portfolio (1.688 million subscribers and 1.595 million non-subscribers).

Other analysts had this to say about Autodesk:

Cowen reiterated a Buy rating with a $75 price target.
Pacific Crest reiterated a Buy rating.
Robert Baird reiterated a Buy rating with a $60 price target.

So far in 2015, Autodesk has underperformed the market. In fact, shares are down 18% year to date but down only 9% over the past 52 weeks.

Shares of Autodesk were up 2% at $50.15 midday Thursday. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $68.88 and a 52-week trading range of $46.77 to $65.00.

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About the Author Chris Lange →

Chris Lange is a writer for 24/7 Wall St., based in Houston. He has covered financial markets over the past decade with an emphasis on healthcare, tech, and IPOs. During this time, he has published thousands of articles with insightful analysis across these complex fields. Currently, Lange's focus is on military and geopolitical topics.

Lange's work has been quoted or mentioned in Forbes, The New York Times, Business Insider, USA Today, MSN, Yahoo, The Verge, Vice, The Intelligencer, Quartz, Nasdaq, The Motley Fool, Fox Business, International Business Times, The Street, Seeking Alpha, Barron’s, Benzinga, and many other major publications.

A graduate of Southwestern University in Georgetown, Texas, Lange majored in business with a particular focus on investments. He has previous experience in the banking industry and startups.