Apple and the last 15 bears

The average bear market lasts 400 days and sees a 38% decline.

From Michael Batnick’s Dec. 22 Irrelevant Investor:

If U.S. stocks are entering a bear market, they likely have a ways to go before they reach a bottom. You can see where we currently are (red) versus the 15 bear markets we’ve had over the last century (DJIA). The selling might be jarring because the speed at which it’s happened, and the absence of any short-term relief, but this chart should put today’s declines in perspective. I’m not saying this doesn’t hurt, but there’s a big difference between pain and trauma. We ain’t seen nothing yet.

Click to enlarge.

The table below shows the numbers from the chart above. The average bear market has lasted just over 400 days and saw a 38% decline. Some were shorter and shallower, others were longer and deeper, but I actually think this is a rare case where the average provides decent context for the pain a bear market entails.

My take: Apple has a head start. It’s fallen 35% in less than 50 days. That said, it’s hard to see anything hitting bottom until this Trump thing gets resolved.

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