Why Apple and Snap Both Could Be Lurking Value Stocks

It was just a few days ago when trade wars and tariffs were going to sink the U.S. economy. Then a sudden snap-back stock market rally is making everyone forget that the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq had all sold off by 7%, 8% and 9%, respectively, from their highs.

Many investors used the “sell in May and go away” mentality to their advantage, and many market pundits have pointed out that the seasonal trend is a time to lighten up on some positions with solid gains and to then look for bargains. And there are many investors who are still eager to find those gains.

Thursday’s wave of analyst upgrades and downgrades included two somewhat surprising calls that both had some hallmark of reporting that value investors might flock to. Ironically, one may be a value stock for sure and the “relative value” for the other is a harder notion to understand.

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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL | AAPL Price Prediction) has run into some issues around its glory days of endless growth. And in the wake of China risks and national pride steering consumers to some brands and away from others, there are some continued risks around Apple as it has transitioned from a major growth stock to a value stock. Rather than looking for more and more gains in technology sales, Apple has matured for now in its technology sales and is upping its game in services and recurring revenues.

Evercore ISI’s Amit Daryanani started Apple with a Buy rating and the analyst assigned a $205 price target in the call. This call represented about 12.3% upside from the prior close of $182.54 without considering Apple’s 1.7% dividend yield. Daryanani said in his report:

We believe the stock is undervalued at these levels … we believe the company can continue to drive strong momentum in services while increasing average selling prices to partially offset iPhone unit declines … we think a key positive for Apple is its resilient and recurring free cash flow generation We expect Apple to return much of the ongoing free cash flow generation back to shareholders.

That all sounds like a value call in its nature, but Daryanani also noted that Apple might be able to rise to as much as $260 if its services business grows much faster than expected. The downside scenario is called to be $140 if the share of iPhones drops and if the services growth does not materialize.

Apple shares were last seen trading up 0.65% at $183.70 late on Thursday, with a 52-week range of $142.00 to $233.47. The $20 target for Apple in this call is actually shy of the prior consensus target price from Refinitiv of about $216.00.

The “non-value” value call was seen in shares of Snap Inc. (NYSE: SNAP). The so-called camera company that gives shareholders no power and which has no clear path to profitability was raised to Buy from Hold at Pivotal Research. The firm also raised its target price up to $17.25 from $13.25.

Pivotal’s Michael Levine said he doesn’t want to miss the inflection point in Snap’s business and that prospects for its user growth has turned the corner. Levine said:

We recognize that this is aggressive versus historical ranges, but there is a healthy amount of remaining skepticism about the business among investors, and we think a turn in usage and revenues could translate into a meaningful re-rating higher.

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Levine also talked up Snap’s latest launch of lenses being some of the most impressive product innovation seen in some time from the company and that the company is likely to see a more rationalized cost structure ahead.

There are some key differences here in a value stock and an analyst saying that Snap is undervalued. First off, Snap shares more than doubled so far in 2019. Many of the concerns about the company are still present, but a bonus feature that Snap has going for it is that it doesn’t have President Trump calling it out for bias and content suppression (Twitter) and it doesn’t have regulatory pressure on privacy and potential breakup risks (Google, Facebook).

Snap shares were last seen up 8.6% at $14.05 on Thursday’s late-day trading. Snap has a 52-week range of $4.82 to $14.47, but even the lower analyst price target before the upgrade was higher than the prior consensus target price of $11.49.

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