Even the Mighty Shopify Faces COVID-19 Outlook Issues for 2020

Technology

Published: April 1, 2020 6:07 pm

Last Updated: April 2, 2020 7:20 am

Shopify Inc. (NYSE: SHOP) has been one of the great explosive growth companies of the bull market. After trading under $30 a share for most of the post-IPO period from mid-2015 through mid-2016, by the peak of the market in mid-February of 2020, Shopify’s zenith was close to $600. Now its shares are under $400, and the e-commerce player issued a business update to outline the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Shopify is not set to report earnings until the morning of May 6, 2020, but the momentum was strong enough through the end of 2019, with continued momentum into January and February, that its revenue and adjusted operating income for the first quarter of 2020 was “within or ahead of the range of expectations” that Shopify issued on February 12, even considering the economic disruption that emerged in March due to the pandemic.

Unfortunately, Shopify’s crystal ball is not more powerful than the other companies that had tried to offer annual guidance. Shopify has suspended prior financial expectations that it had issued for the full year (2020) due to uncertainties from the duration and the magnitude of COVID-19 on the economy.

Many investors have evaluated Shopify as “the next Amazon,” but even after losing one-third of its value from the peak, it is had nearly a $45 billion market cap, versus less than $1.6 billion in 2019 revenues. Refinitiv recently had consensus revenue expectations of $2.13 billion for 2020 (up 35%) and $2.86 billion for 2021 (up another 34%). Those consensus estimates were in part based on guidance that Shopify had offered, so analysts may also choose to back off of some of their revenue projections ahead.

The company is analyzing data across the Shopify platform to see how the economic impact from the pandemic is affecting merchants’ operations. The early signs are showing that brick-and-mortar businesses, which have been hit by much lower foot traffic, have been pivoting to online efforts as consumer demand shifts in this stay-at-home economy. Another issue that has been seen is that merchants are “heavily leveraging discounts” to boost their sales.

Actions that are being taken to support Shopify’s merchants and stakeholders include initiatives that are focused to help merchants transition and adapt to the emerging social distancing practices that are becoming the new norm. Some of those efforts include extended 90-day free trials to all new standard plan signups and gift cards on all plans and for all merchants. The company is also offering local in-store and curbside pickup and delivery efforts for POS merchants.

On top of the efforts above, Shopify is pledging a $200 million commitment for Shopify Capital while it fast-tracks expansion to core geographies working with partners and governments. This is shown to include the U.K. market, where Shopify Capital just launched on March 30, 2020. Other online resources to support Shopify merchants are showing resources over where to secure government funding, as well as how to find community forums and other social efforts.

Shopify shares closed down 7.7% at $384.67 on Wednesday, and the after-hours reaction had the shares down another 4.3% to $368.00. Their 52-week range is $190.38 to $593.89.