Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) revenue was $27 billion in its fiscal 2023 and $61 billion in fiscal 2024. It jumped to $131 billion in fiscal 2025. However, Nvidia’s revenue will no longer double.
Nvidia’s revenue has risen about 70% recently. It increased 56% to $46.7 billion in its fiscal second quarter, compared to the same period the year before. Based on its guidance for the current quarter, the revenue percentage increase will not be much better than that.
In some ways, the slowing in growth is unexpected. Artificial intelligence (AI) projects are spread across hundreds of companies, or even more. The world’s largest tech companies, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and OpenAI, have committed over $350 billion to build these. They have almost unlimited capital. Additionally, institutional investors want in on the action. Capital available from them will run into the hundreds of billions of dollars as well.
Even Nvidia’s stock performance is a sort of consensus that revenue hypergrowth is over. Shares are up 1,350% in the past five years, 53% in the past year, and 31% year to date. When there was doubt about AI growth early in the year, the stock actually dropped from $150 a share at the start of 2025 to $92 in April. Nvidia’s shares are no longer invulnerable.
New Headwinds
Nvidia has headwinds it did not have a year ago. Its struggle to get into China is a primary one. First, the United States objected to these sales. More recently, the Chinese government objected. China said it could build chips as good as Nvidia’s. If so, revenue from the world’s second-largest AI market based on computing power has disappeared. China’s AI products appear to be catching up to those in the U.S. Unlike in America, AI investments directly from the central government are huge.
According to McKinsey, capital expenditures for data centers will reach $7 trillion in 2030. About $4 trillion will go to hardware. However, McKinsey admits there is probably a rate-limiting factor. This is the availability of electricity. More than anything else, this could slow the construction. In its new study, “The data center balance: How US states can navigate the opportunities and challenges,” its researchers report this may be hard to overcome. “This substantial new load on regional grids, especially in constrained zones, will require new supply build-outs and incremental transmission expansion.”
It is not difficult to see that Nvidia’s revenue growth rate could be 50% for several years. There are too many roadblocks for it to return to the days when year-over-year revenue doubling was normal.
Nvidia Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030
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