What If Apple (AAPL) Misses Earnings?

Wall St. believes that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) will make $1.42 a share for the quarter that just ended on $9.2 billion in revenue. Both figures would be well over 10% higher than a year ago.  Apple would have to sell about of 2.9 million Macs, 10.5 million iPods and 6.9 million iPhones to hit those numbers.

Fulfilling those expectations will be a tall order. iPod sales dropped 7% in the June quarter. Mac sales were only up 4% to 2.6 million, and iPhone sales reached 5.2 million.

Wall St.’s iPhone sales  estimates may be too conservative. The handset has been a hit for AT&T (NYSE:T), especially after the introduction of the 3GS model, and there is some evidence that sales in Europe are rising quickly due to price cuts in the UK, Germany, and France.

iPod and Mac sales are a different matter. The iPod has been in the market since 2001 and its total worldwide sales since its introduction are over 200 million. The third quarter of the calendar year was still a rough one for most global economies. Consumers were not likely to be out in force. If video game console and PC sales are any indication, the consumer electronics business continued to do poorly in the period.

There is evidence that Mac sales are slowing. The latest Gartner figures show that the Mac share of the US market barely budged in Q3 while Acer and Toshiba sales rose sharply. Apple still does not have a product to challenge mini-PCs which are the products that are driving computer sales higher.

Apple’s shares have risen 120% this year which implies that investors expect the consumer electronics company to handily beat even the most optimistic expectations when it reports its numbers. By contrast, HP (NYSE:HPQ) shares are only up by 38% during the same period.

Apple’s stock is priced based on another quarter of unprecedented success. But, sales of the iPod and Mac may be under more pressure that analysts expect. That could bring Apple down to earth and the landing will be a hard one.

Douglas A. McIntyre