Defending R-I-M Blackberry versus iPhones (RIMM, AAPL, GOOG)

Research in Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) has been the envy of many cellphone makers for the last two years.  Now you have Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) with the iPhone and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) trying to make a real dent in the smartphone market with Droid and Nexus One phones.  There has been speculation that R-I-M was suffering at the hands of the iPhone.  That now seems obvious when you see so many in public using smartphones other than a Blackberry.  It may have taken away some users and may have capped its entire opportunity, but a research piece is saying that the fears are overblown that Blackberry’s future growth is being taken away.  This also differs with other research on the same topic.

Oppenheimer has a note after conducting channel checks at R-I-M calling for another very solid quarter coming from the maker of the BlackBerry.  Oppenheimer even went as far as to raise estimates for the company despite noting lower average selling prices and noting that the demand is there in its lower priced phones.  The belief is that it is not taking away from earnings.  The issue that Americans get hung up on is that the international growth is huge for R-I-M because of the rise of more and more businesses needing the real-time communications.

Also noted is higher demand for the new Curve and the Bold smartphones.  Oppenheimer now believes that 11.4 million units were shipped out, which is above the prior range of 10.6 to 11.2 million shipped units.

This also flies right in the face of new research we covered yesterday showing that many Blackberry users may actually want an iPhone.

So far the move is not helping RIM as the stock is down 0.3% at $74.25.  It is worth noting that RIM shares have not rallied in the last 5 days with the broader markets.  The smartphone maker’s earnings are set for March 31, 2010, so we should know if Oppenheimer was right or whether it was throwing darts on the wall.

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JON C. OGG