The Death of Growth at AT&T

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By Douglas A. McIntyre Published
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What has been a worry about AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) for some time has become a reality. The big telecom firm can no longer grow. The years in which its revenue expanded are behind it.

In the first quarter, AT&T’s revenue was $31.4 billion, down 1.5% compared to the year-earlier quarter. AT&T has done what many large no-growth public corporations do. It will continue to buy up shares, ostensibly to raise per-share earnings (EPS):

During the quarter, the AT&T board of directors approved a third 300 million share repurchase authorization. Since the beginning of 2012, the company has been buying back shares under two previous 300 million share repurchase authorizations.

The expansion of AT&T’s 4G network has not been enough to draw large numbers of new subscribers. Even with its push to drive revenue in this division through new services and charges for data use, the wireless operation’s revenue rose just 3.4% year-over-year to $16.7 billion. AT&T has to confront the hurdle all other wireless subscription companies in the United States do. There are more cellular customers in America than their are people. The wireless customer business has become a zero sum game.

Wireline revenue improvement also was under pressure. Sales from a new broadband-to-the home initiative, which AT&T calls U-verse, could not make up for drops in home phone attrition. Too many households use wireless phones now, or Internet-enabled ones, for AT&T to keep traditional phone service at past levels. And so, total first-quarter wireline revenue was $14.7 billion, down 1.8% versus the year-earlier quarter and down 1.8% sequentially. AT&T buried the details deep in its earning press release:

Revenues from residential customers totaled $5.5 billion, an increase of 2.0 percent versus the first quarter a year ago. Continued strong growth in consumer IP data services in the first quarter more than offset lower revenues from voice and legacy products.

That “legacy” revenue will continue to drop.

AT&T has no way to make a case for growth. It will have to come up with other means to impress investors.

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About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.

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