Sizing Up Republic’s Recovery

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By Jon C. Ogg Published
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Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: RJET) saw a reversal of misfortune on Wednesday. This stock fell handily on Monday and Tuesday, falling from over $8.00 down to under $4.00. So, what are investors supposed to make of more than a 50% gain on Wednesday?

The driving force for this week’s drop was that the stock is under the gun of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The organization has boosted the required flight experience for first officers by a multiple of six to a total of 1,500 hours. The FAA also set new limits on duty times, according to Republic Airways.

Republic already faced an unstable situation within the company. Existing workers haven’t  been able to reach a new labor contract, at least at what was called competitive rates. It goes without saying that this is potentially catastrophic for Republic Airways. After all, planes don’t do too well without pilots yet.

Earlier this week, Republic Airways said it expects to report second-quarter net income of $4 million to $5 million, or earnings per share (EPS) of $0.08 to $0.10. The consensus analyst estimates from Thomson Reuters were calling for $0.28 in EPS on $349.93 million in revenue in the second quarter. In terms of the full year, consensus estimates call for $1.12 in EPS on $1.42 billion in revenue.

Considering this recent development these could drastically change as the near-term guidance will most likely provoke a change in estimates as well.

Shares of Republic Airways closed Monday down over 55% at $3.77 on a 52-week trading range of $3.56 to $15.36. Then shares closed even lower on Tuesday at $3.44, and on higher trading volume than what was seen on Monday.

Wednesday’s gain was a whopping 52% to $5.26, and it took place on more than 30 million shares. There is still a long way to go for Republic Airways to get back up to above $8.00. Still, something is better than nothing.

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About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. a673b.bigscoots-temp.com.

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