The Trouble for Boeing Shareholders — Analyst Says to Sell!

As Buckingham sees it, Boeing’s cash flow is the company’s big problem. The research group believes that lower 777 production rates and higher deferred production costs on the 787 will have a negative impact on the aircraft maker’s results.

As Leeham points out, Buckingham isn’t the only analyst to downgrade the stock. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has cut the stock to Neutral and RBC Capital Markets has cut its rating to Sector Perform. Wells Fargo and UBS have also commented on 777 production, especially on the transition from the current version of the plane to the new 777X, which is scheduled to begin deliveries in 2020.

Buckingham expects Boeing to reduce 777 production next year, from a rate of about 8.3 per month to 7.0, and perhaps as low as four. The research firm believes there is no way that the company will sustain a rate of 8.3 planes per month through the introduction of the 777X.

In order to maintain production at the rate of 8.3 per month, Boeing needs to nab 72 new orders and conversions a year, well above the company’s current estimate of 40 to 60 per year.

Not all analysts agree. Sterne Agee sent out an upbeat note on Boeing Tuesday morning, noting delivery of approximately 14 787s in August out of a total of 58 total deliveries. In order to reach the firm’s estimate for third-quarter deliveries, Boeing will need to deliver about 71 planes in September. Sterne Agee maintains a Buy rating on Boeing’s stock with a price target of $164 per share.

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