Nvidia’s Share Price Up 175% This Year

By Douglas A. McIntyre Published Dec 1, 10:30AM EST

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Nvidia’s Share Price Up 175% This Year — © Antonio Bordunovi / iStock Editorial via Getty Images

The S&P 500 is up 26% this year. Social media giant Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META | META Price Prediction) has posted 62% growth on a remarkable surge in users and revenue. Neither is close to Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) advance, up 175% to a market cap-leading $3.4 billion this year.

Nvidia’s 2025 performance is based on whether AI is the most significant advance in tech in decades or a lesser product with an effect closer to the internet or PC. Many analysts think big tech companies like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) have invested too much in AI, and their earnings will suffer until it is clear AI will drive their revenue up by double digits and justify expenditures well into the billions of dollars. Nvidia’s fate is based on big tech’s need to stay in an arm’s race, the goal of which is AI dominance.

Public corporations are not the only companies that drive AI demand. Private capital has helped OpenAI push its value to $157 billion. Elon Musk’s xAI recently got a valuation of $50 billion. He raised $6 billion recently, much of it to create a Tennessee-based server center, which will be built from 100,000 Nvidia chips.

One aspect of the AI arms race that favors Nvidia is that there is no clear leader in the industry, and a dozen companies are competing for that lead. Some, like Microsoft, are public, while the private ones appear to have a nearly infinite flow of capital from venture capitalists. Access to Nvidia chips is critical to the future of all of these.

The most obvious marker of whether Nvidia’s stock will grow or start to fall sharply in price is whether it can continue to double earnings quarterly year over year. In the most recent quarter, EPS rose 111% to $.78, as revenue rose 94% to $35.1 billion.

About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.