GM (GM) says that 75% of its sales will come from outside the US by 2017.
“Overseas growth is an absolute necessity if GM is going to compete, not just with Toyota, but with emerging market automakers,” John Casesa, managing partner at Casesa Shapiro Group in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg. “It’s this sales mix that will eventually save GM.”
Assuming that GM can keep its 25% share of the US market, meeting the number will still be difficult. And, there is no guarantee the largest US car company can keep its piece of the market here.
The next country where GM will have to do very well is China. Along with VW, GM is one of the leader car producers in the world’s most populated country. But local car companies, with support from the government, would like to keep as much of that business "in country" as possible.
In India, GM is up against Tata Motors, which is likely to buy Jaguar and Rover from Ford (F). Getting share from well-funded locals will be difficult. The same holds true in other rapidly growing markets like Russia.
GM will need a very large piece sales in three or four countries to reach its goal. That is far from certain.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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