No matter how much Detroit would like to change the math, the total always adds to 100%.
Over the course of the last week, management from GM (NYSE:GM), Ford (NYSE:F), and Chrysler have tried to convince the industry and investors that this would still be a year when domestic vehicle sales will hit over 15.5 million. JP Powers recently revised their number down to 14.95 million. High gas prices and a tough economy could make that number worse.
Toyota (NYE:TM) said yesterday that it may not make its global sales goal for 2008, mostly due to poor performance in the US, Europe, and Japan.
Nissan says its market share in the US will incease in March. According to Reuters, Nissan said "U.S. sales were in line with its March targets and it expects to win a higher market share despite increasing concern about the economy."
In the math of the car business, that means someone will lose share. If it is one or all of the US car companies, the dream of 2008 being a good year fades closer to black.
At 14.5 million vehicle sales, the US market produces about $40 billion less in car revenue than it did last year when sales were 16.1 million. GM had a 25% share last year, Ford 15% and Chrysler a bit over 12%.
Shrinking pieces of a shrinking pie.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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