Based on Tesla Motors Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) forecasts, it should sell well below 12,000 cars worldwide this quarter. The odds of hitting such an ambitious number have fallen quickly. If Tesla misses an unexpectedly high target, which is well above the expectations it has set, analysts will fairly start to question whether Tesla can keep its reputation as one of the fastest growing car companies in the world. And with that, anxiety about its future will rise. Tesla needs a sales surprise.

Tesla’s CEO and founder Elon Musk wrote in his shareholder letter about 2014 that 2015 production will reach 55,000 Model S and Model X cars. Some 40% of those cars built will be in the first quarter. About 9,500 will be delivered in the first quarter, according to his forecast. Musk said the level will depend on Asia and Europe. Recent struggles with sales in China make hitting the goal less likely. For those who believe the company will continue to revolutionize the car industry and post an “upside surprise,” sales need to outpace that 9,500 number.

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The media interpreted a recent tweet by Musk as a signal that Tesla will release a car that can travel further than the range of its current Model S. The fact that a Tesla cannot go nearly as far as some gasoline-powered vehicles makes some potential buyers wary. The new battery technology may relieve that objection.

New battery or not, Tesla’s sales improvement may have slowed for other reasons. The company has not released a promised car priced at about half the current price of $71,000. The Model X will not be available for delivery for another year. The P85D super car will cost more than $100,000, and that price will limit demand. Tesla’s rate of model delivery is among its greatest challenges.

Perhaps the most difficult barrier to Tesla’s ability to sell 12,000 vehicles this quarter is that it finally has some competition. These competitors do not have all-electric engines, but they still promote themselves as “electric.” One example is the upcoming BMW i8, which will sell for more than $136,000 and has a small gas engine. BMW has the leverage of its balance sheet for R&D and production, a sizable dealer network and one of the world’s most recognized brands.

Tesla will need a lot more than a longer range engine to exceed the modest targets it has set for the current quarter.

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