March Auto Sales to Tumble 7%

By Paul Ausick Updated Jan 6, 5:58AM EST · Published Mar 27, 3:52PM EDT

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March Auto Sales to Tumble 7% — © courtesy of General Motors Co.

Industry analysts at Cox Automotive have forecast that March sales will total 1.55 million light vehicles (cars, SUVs, and pickups). That’s down 7% year over year for the month. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales for light vehicle sales drops from 17.2 million in March 2018 to 16.8 million.

If the March forecast pans out, first quarter unit sales will have dipped from 17.1 million a year ago to 16.7 million this year, a drop of 2.3%. March is a typically strong month for new car sales as consumers shed their winter clothes and begin to anticipate the warmer weather ahead.

Cox Automotive’s chief economist, Jonathan Smoke, said:

The year has started relatively soft for new-vehicle sales. January was a combination of factors, some of which were related to the broader economy. The government shutdown, decline in consumer confidence, and the polar vortex all detracted from the economy and new-vehicle sales in January. We had somewhat better weather in February, in most of the U.S., an open government and a rebound in confidence, yet new-vehicle sales did not improve. Now we know that consumer confidence again moved down in March. It’s looking like the new-vehicle market is suffering in part from the overdue resumption of the normal, post-peak slowdown that was temporarily disrupted last year by tax reform.

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Here’s how Cox sees first-quarter sales for several automakers:

General Motors: down 6.5% year over year; unit sales of 668,913; market share of 17%
Ford: down 2.6%; 581,574 units; 14.8% share
Toyota: down 5.8%; 538,769 units; 13.7% share
Fiat Chrysler: down 3.2%; 498,118 units; 12.76% share
Honda: down 0.4%; 361,278 units; 9.2% share
Nissan: down 14.2%; 357,083 units; 9.1% share
Volkswagen: down 5.5%; 139,838 units; 3.6% share
BMW: down 9%; 76,796 units; 2% share
Daimler: down 12.3%; 76,251 units; 1.9% share

There are a couple of tax-related issues that may have affected new car sales in the first quarter. U.S. taxpayers may have been taken by surprise when federal tax refunds were less than expected this year and fleet sales jumped last year, an effect not expected to be repeated this year.

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About the Author Paul Ausick →

Paul Ausick has been writing for a673b.bigscoots-temp.com for more than a decade. He has written extensively on investing in the energy, defense, and technology sectors. In a previous life, he wrote technical documentation and managed a marketing communications group in Silicon Valley.

He has a bachelor's degree in English from the University of Chicago and now lives in Montana, where he fishes for trout in the summer and stays inside during the winter.