Why NBG Should Like Greece’s Bond Sale But Didn’t

It would be easy to argue that a drop of nearly 4% in NBG’s ADSs in New York is just a “sell the news” reaction. It would also be easy to say that perhaps the market sell-off is the justification here.

What matters is that Greece sold five-year notes due in 2019 for a yield of only 4.95%. It has been roughly four years since Greece had any real bond issuance. Keep in mind that 3 billion euro is close to $4.2 billion in dollar terms.

We had heard that the offering was handily oversubscribed, and it appears that the orders were for up to $20 billion. Shouldn’t that be good for NBG when you consider how much Greek debt the Greek banks are holding?

Two issues not talked about much in the news may be the real culprits for why NBG shares are not enjoying any continued recovery on Thursday. This 3 billion euro debt offering came immediately after more austerity protests and a strike. We have to also keep in mind that Greece’s debt is likely to be 175% of gross domestic product this year. The possibility of more strife and the possibility of debt triggers may explain the drop in NBG shares more than any of the one-day news headlines.

Another hidden issue for why Greece’s yields are so low is because there is just no yield to grab in new issuances elsewhere. S&P’s speculative composite grade yield spread is currently just above 400 basis points. The German five-year bund yield is only 0.59%, and the U.S. Treasury five-year note has a yield of 1.57%. Suddenly 4.95% sounds great to investors — even if it ties up the money for five years in an island nation whose return to growth may only be a recovery from an economy that lost roughly one-fifth of its output.

NBG’s ADSs were down 3.86% at $5.48 in mid-day trading on Thursday. Its adjusted 52-week range is $2.85 to $24.70, and these ADSs have traded as high as $5.79 and as low as $5.22 in the past 10 trading sessions.