Ten-Year Treasury Auction Shows Big Bias Reversal From Two Weeks Ago

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By Jon C. Ogg Published
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It has only been about 10 days since we pondered whether the bond rally was signaling the risk of a recession or something else negative in a flight to safety trade. And now a 10-year Treasury auction has gone off rather poorly, and suddenly 10-year Treasury rates are up almost 20 basis points from their lows less than two weeks ago.

The Treasury’s 10-year note auction of a 2.5% coupon went off with a high yield of 2.648%, with some 96.96% allotted at the high yield for a price of 98.714636. These are technically nine years and 11 months to the May 15, 2024, maturity.

The bid-to-offer rate was 2.88, implying that $2.88 was tendered for every $1 accepted by the Treasury.

Primary dealers tendered the most at $40.238 billion, but only $9.33 billion was accepted. Direct bids, non-primary dealers bidding for their own accounts, were $5.915 billion, with almost 44.07 billion accepted. Indirect bids, which include foreign bank demand, had over $14.35 billion tendered and $7.56 billion accepted.

Wednesday’s 10-year Treasury auction may not be a disaster for rates, but this may set the tone for a weaker 30-year Treasury auction due on Thursday.

Poor demand in an auction just two weeks after a bottom in yields generally signals one of two things: 1) the economy is getting better, or 2) no one wants to loan Uncle Sam money this low for 10 years.

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Photo of Jon C. Ogg
About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. a673b.bigscoots-temp.com.

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