American Express Down 21%, Worst of Dow Stocks

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is off 7.64% this year to 16,093.51, after a mad rally pushed it up from a much deeper hole. The leading loser among the index’s 30 components is America Express Co. (NYSE: AXP), off 20.82% to $55.06. Of that drop, 12.1% happened Friday after the latest in a line of disappointing quarterly earnings.

American Express reported that total revenue less interest expense dropped 4% to $32.8 billion for 2015. Earnings per share (EPS) were off 9% to $5.05. The fourth quarter was worse. Revenue less interest expense dropped 8% to $8.4 billion, and EPS were off 36% to $0.89.

The American Express forecast was dire. Kenneth I. Chenault, chairman and chief executive officer, said:

For 2017, we are now targeting EPS of at least $5.60. That includes growing over the portfolio gain and this year’s Costco-related earnings. It also includes a combination of accelerated revenue growth, aggressive expense reductions and the use of our capital strength to create value for shareholders. The 2016-17 earnings targets do not include restructuring charges or other contingencies.

Chenault’s excuse was not convincing:

We have a great set of assets to draw upon, including a trusted brand, financial strength, an integrated business model, world class service and a history of innovation. We’re confident that we’ll not just deal with our near-term challenges, but return to growth and position the company for long-term success.

That success will be driven to some extent by nearly $1 billion in cost cuts, which eventually may not matter at all.
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Not only did Wall Street punish the stock, but investors gave a range of explanations. Stifel’s Christopher Brendler was quoted in Barron’s:

In our view, AXP’s disappointing 2016-2017 EPS guidance confirms our long-standing concerns about its ability to compete in today’s intensely competitive card market. While we applaud the decision to finally shutdown Enterprise Growth and refocus on cost cutting, we are disappointed with the inability to re-inspire confidence in the top-line turnaround in such a tough environment. Although several of these headwinds are unfortunate timing, we struggle to find a easy answers and instead see AXP facing years of below average growth. Combined with the macro sell-off and rock-bottom valuations at its closest card-issuing peers, we continue to await better visibility.

That is a complicated way to explain a simple and probably insurmountable problem. American Express was, for decades, the Rolls Royce of credit cards and financial services. Competition has stripped it entirely of those advantages by matching American Express services one by one.