Can Volkswagen Triple Its U.S. Sales?

VW sold 179,144 vehicles in the United States over the first six months of this year, down 13.4%. Among the six large car companies in America, Nissan had the fewest sales over the same period at 704,477, up 12.8%, or 8.6% of the market. All smaller car companies have market shares that make them little beyond niche manufacturers.

The odds that VW can grow this much are astronomically against it for several reasons. The first is that its larger competitors will not give up market share easily. And they have the marketing budgets and broad model lines to defend their positions. Second, VW’s sales are falling while those of most of the larger companies are rising. Third, and perhaps most difficult, VW has a limited model line that is not expect to expand a great deal in the near future.

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VW unit sales fell 22% in June to 28,827. Sales across all model lines fell. VW management said that it had some optimism based on the sales of a small number of models:

Last month, Volkswagen began delivering the all-new, seventh-generation 2015 Golf GTI. The all-new Golf GTI is off to a strong start boosting sales of the model to its best total sales since March 2006. The all-new 2015 Golf TSI and TDI Clean Diesel models will go on sale this August.

In fairness to executives at Volkswagen of America, the parent company Volkswagen Group has done almost nothing to support them. VW is the largest car company in Europe. It sold 1,371,328 vehicles there, up 5.8% through May. It held 25.2% of the EU market for the period. Sales of its core VW brand rose 4.1% to 664,785 which represented a market share of 12.2%.

VW is also among the largest car companies in China, the largest car market in the world.

VW has not “imported” any of the success in the top two car markets in the world, or most of the broad spectrum of cars and light trucks it makes, into America to help local management solve its problems. Until it does so, very aggressively, VW will flounder in the United States.

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